On top of that, Sabalenka has all the power in the world along the baseline, she has improved her movement and she has even added a drop shot to her arsenal. Nobody on the planet is a more complete player right now.
These are also great conditions for Sabalenka. The Belarusian loves playing altitude clay, where her ball-striking is still incredibly dangerous and she’s given more time to track down shots and load up. There’s a reason Sabalenka has won this tournament twice in her career, and she won those titles in 2021 and 2023—before she really made her improvements on the dirt.
Of course, Gauff beat Sabalenka the last time they met, in the WTA Finals, and we know her A-game is enough to compete with her. But the reason you take Sabalenka in a matchup like this is that she’s far more likely to play a solid match.
One note: this isn’t a play you should be making if you already have Sabalenka futures. I gave out Sabalenka to win Madrid at +400 before it all started, and I don’t believe in adding to a position this late in an event. If anything, if you’re holding a Sabalenka ticket, you might want to consider hedging.
Pick: Sabalenka ML (-149)
