It’s hard to overlook the head-to-head edge that Fritz has earned here. The American has won three matches in a row against his opponent, but the odds suggest there’s a 42 percent chance he doesn’t win a set? I can’t quite get on board with that, even though Zverev clearly loves these conditions and has his game clicking in a big way.
Both of these players are extremely difficult to break on hard courts—especially indoors. In 2024, Zverev has a hold percentage of 89.8% on this surface, and Fritz isn’t much lower at 87.8%. With that in mind, it feels likely that we’ll see a tiebreaker at some point in the first two sets, if not both. So, why not take a shot on Fritz to emerge with one of those? Fritz actually has a higher tiebreaker winning percentage (62.5%) than Zverev (56.7%) this season.
⬇️ LINE CALLS, PRESENTED BY FANDUEL: Zverev offers best value to win the ATP Finals
