The Los Angeles Lakers will meet the Milwaukee Bucks on a Thursday for the second straight week. The Bucks defeated the Lakers, 126-106, in Milwaukee last week in their first meeting of the season, and the two will now go head-to-head in Los Angeles. LeBron James (groin) missed last week and is likely out again. The Lakers play the second half of a back-to-back after defeating the Nuggets, 120-108, on Wednesday in Los Angeles. Luka Doncic had 31 points, eight rebounds and seven assists as the Lakers improved to 43-25 overall, including 28-7 at home. The Bucks have lost back-to-back games and enter at 38-30 overall, including 14-18 on the road. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) and Damian Lillard (groin) are probable for the Bucks.
Tipoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The Bucks are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Lakers vs. Bucks odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for points scored is 227. The Bucks are -153 (risk $153 to win $100) money-line favorites, while the Lakers are +128 underdogs.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Here are the model’s NBA best bets for Bucks vs. Lakers on Thursday:
Lakers +3.5 (-110 at Fanatics)
The Lakers are 3-0 during their current five-game homestand and have the third-best home winning percentage (.800) this season. All three wins came with James sidelined as they’ve remained dominant at home even without one of their superstars. The Lakers have won nine straight home games, and their only loss in Los Angeles with Doncic on the roster came the first time they played together. Doncic is averaging 28.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 9.7 assists over the homestand without James in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost back-to-back games and they play the second of a five-game West Coast road trip. Milwaukee is 2-5 over its last seven games, which has the model projecting the Lakers to cover the spread in well over 60% of simulations. The Lakers are 3.5-point underdogs on multiple sportsbooks, but Fanatics Sportsbook is currently offering the best odds at -110.
Under 227 points (-110 at Bet365)
The Under has hit in back-to-back Bucks games and in four of Milwaukee’s last six contests. Although the Bucks and Lakers are both filled with stars and often thought of as high-octane offensive teams, they are average to below average in scoring this season. The Bucks are 15th in the league at 114.2 points per game after being a top-six scoring offense in each of the last six seasons. The Lakers are 19th in scoring offense at 113.1 points per game. All this has the model projecting the Under to hit in well over 60% of simulations.
Damian Lillard Over 4.5 Rebounds (+150 at BetMGM)
Lillard has gone Over his rebounding total in four of his last five games when the Bucks are road favorites, averaging 5.4 rebounds per game in those contests. That bodes well for his player prop for Thursday and the nine-time NBA All-Star is averaging 4.7 rebounds per game this season. He grabbed six rebounds against the Lakers on March 13 and followed that with 10 rebounds against the Pacers on Saturday. As 6-foot-10 forward Bobby Portis remains suspended, there are more rebounding opportunities for Lillard and the rest of the team with the guards needing to attack the glass more often. Some sportsbooks are offering Lillard at 3.5 rebounds with the Over as a heavier favorite, but the model views Over 4.5 rebounds at +150 odds at BetMGM as the best value.
Want more NBA picks for Thursday?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA best bets for Lakers vs. Bucks on Thursday. Now, get picks for every game from SportsLine’s model that’s on a 151-111 roll on NBA picks dating back to last season. Visit SportsLine to get all of its NBA picks for Thursday right here.
