Miami Open Match Preview
At the start of the year, I singled out Mensik as a player to watch in 2025. The 19-year-old Czech had treaded water for the first half of 2024, but he had already spent time in the Top 50, and he started to go deeper into events near the end of the season, making the quarters in Shanghai and Vienna and pushing Novak Djokovic to three sets.
So far this season, it has been the 23-year-old Draper, rather than Mensik, who has been the outstanding new face of the ATP, winning his first Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells and compiling a 13-2 record. By comparison, Mensik has been OK. He made a quarter in Brisbane, won two rounds at the Australian Open, and reached the semis at a Challenger in the Dominican Republic last week. His ranking of 54 is pretty much where it was to start the year.
Draper and Mensik have played once, also at a Challenger in France in 2023; the match was on hard courts and Draper won 6-4, 6-2. Draper will be favored to do the same on Saturday, but there are a couple of variables in play. What will his motivation level, and his physical condition, be like after his winning run in IW last week? Will he have a letdown, or will he be brimming with confidence? As for Mensik, we might ask an opposing question: Could his Challenger success last week, and his three-set win over Roberto Bautista Agut on Thursday, lead to a breakout win against a guy like Draper?
One thing is certain with two guys who are 6-foot-4: The serve will be paramount. Draper has made his one of the best in the game, and Mensik, who threw down 23 aces over three sets in his opener, isn’t far behind. I’ll take Mensik in a breaker or three. Winner: Mensik—Steve Tignor
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