Taylor Fritz won the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells back in 2022, beating Rafael Nadal 6-3, 7-6 (5) in the final. The American is clearly capable of playing some high-level tennis here. However, Fritz had lost two of his previous three matches before arriving in the desert this week, and he has been dealing with some injuries to start 2025. So, this isn’t exactly the version of the American we’re used to. With that in mind, it’s hard not to like Jack Draper to beat Fritz in the round of 16.
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Realistically, there isn’t much that separates these guys when both are playing their best tennis. That might sound crazy considering Fritz has some big titles to his name, along with a run to the final at last year’s US Open. But Draper has a peak Elo rating of 2055.5 and Frtiz’s peak Elo rating is 2040.8.
Draper doesn’t seem to get the type of praise that other up-and-coming stars receive, but he’s very much an elite young talent in this sport. And when discussing players that can threaten Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz for majors over the next 10 years or so, it’s not outrageous to suggest that the list should start with Draper over Joao Fonseca or Holger Rune. Also, not only is Draper’s peak Elo rating slightly higher than Fritz’s, but his 2025 Elo rating is much higher. Draper has a Top 10 score in 2025 and Fritz is all the way down at 38th.
