If Tauson and Rybakina had difficult holding against Andreeva, perhaps the books think Svitolina doesn’t stand a chance. But Svitolina’s break percentage is 38.0% over the last 52 weeks. She’s a much better returner than some of Andreeva’s previous opponents, and that feels like it’s being overlooked. Svitolina should constantly have her younger opponent under duress throughout this one.
Svitolina is also willing to grind out longer rallies, which is something Andreeva’s previous opponents can’t say. Andreeva has been crushing quick-strike baseliners, but how will she look against a player that is willing to put a lot of balls in play—while also possessing the power to put points away when openings present themselves?
I wouldn’t be surprised if Andreeva ends up winning this match, as she’s a better player than Svitolina at this point. But I’m not sure she should be expected to do it in straight sets. Svitolina has a peak Elo rating of 2109.0, which is a little higher than Andreeva’s peak of 2049.1. And while Svitolina did reach that number back in 2018, she’s only 30 years old. There’s still a lot of good tennis ahead of her, and she’s capable of rising to the occasion on any given day.
Pick: Svitolina +1.5 Sets (-135)
