The soaring scoring rates in the Bazball era have made it increasingly difficult for the best of oppositions to be assured of a win, even by nabbing 20 wickets in England. It is at this juncture that India are mulling an overtly defensive move away from a specialist attack in Birmingham.
Since June 2022, under Ben Stokes, England have only been bundled out twice in a Test in five of the 21 matches played at home. Remarkably, the hosts went on to win two of those games when the opposition was either relatively slower in terms of overs – Sri Lanka took 156.4 overs for 20 wickets at Lord’s in 2024 – or extremely profligate while at it (Australia’s 20 wickets came at 4.82 rpo at the Oval in 2023).
Regardless of the ground, it is now almost certain that England will look to compile runs at over four runs per over every home Test in line with their current brand of batting, holding for 16 of these matches. The lowest match economy rate of a side in a win against the Bazballers reads 3.55, by South Africa at Lord’s in 2022. Australia (at Edgbaston and Lord’s, 2023) and Sri Lanka have all shelled out runs at 4-plus rpo even in their wins.
Leaving out wrist-spinner Kuldeep Yadav for the Edgbaston Test may dent India’s winning chances harder, for the venue has been more generous to spinners than most English venues. Australia’s win at the ground in 2023 had the veteran Nathan Lyon return with the best match figures, with two four-wicket hauls. No wonder R Ashwin has said that “Kuldeep must play”.
Edgbaston stands as the most successful ground for visiting spinners in the 21st century, the only venue recording English wickets at a sub-60 strike rate and averaging below 30 per dismissal.
In many ways, Kuldeep could also be the final roll of the dice in stemming the Bazball-infused scoring. Curiously, only one over of wrist spin has been bowled against England at home in the last three years. England have globally averaged only 30.50 against wrist-spinners in this period, where Kuldeep has accounted for 19 of the 51 fallen wickets with an impressive 36.0 strike rate, averaging 20.6.
4.96 – Economy rate of visiting pacers has been the highest at Edgbaston across all English venues in the Bazball era
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5 – No specialist wrist-spinner has played a Test in England since Pakistan’s Yasir Shah and Shadab Khan in 2020
55.1 – Strike rate of visiting spinners for 92 wickets across 20 Tests this century at Edgbaston, the best among all English venues
29.40 – Visiting spin bowlers’ average in Birmingham is the best among all England grounds this century
