If you’re disappointed you got only one Final Four team right — or even missed on all four — don’t worry. You’re not alone, at least for the most part. Only a fortunate group out of millions get bragging rights each year by correctly picking all four Final Four teams.
Since 2014, well below one percent of Men’s Bracket Challenge Game entries get the Final Four exactly right. The 2025 tournament stands as the outlier, as 286,354 brackets correctly predicted the Final Four — the best performance since tracking data started in 2014, by a landslide — largely due to all four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four for the first time since 2008.
While the 2024 foursome weren’t quite as improbable as in 2023, when only six brackets came through with the combination of No. 4 UConn, No. 5 San Diego State, No. 5 Miami (Fla.) and No. 9 Florida Atlantic, No. 11 seed NC State’s miraculous run to the 2024 Final Four ensured that just 297 brackets predicted all four national semifinalists. Most years see well under 1,000 entries going a perfect four for four.
Here’s a look at how many Men’s Bracket Challenge Game entries — somehow! — correctly picked all four Final Four teams each year:
| Year | Entries Correctly picking the Final FOur |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 51 |
| 2015 | 13,705 |
| 2016 | 117 |
| 2017 | 46 |
| 2018 | 54 |
| 2019 | 457 |
| 2021 | 396 |
| 2022 | 1,995 |
| 2023 | 6 |
| 2024 | 297 |
| 2025 | 286,354 |
| 2026 | 12,624 |
The 2025 numbers are head and shoulders above the pack, nearly 21 times the second-best in 2015. The coveted group comprised of top seeds Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida. Coincidentally, three of the four No. 2 seeds made it to the Elite Eight.
It’s the second time in tournament history that all No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four. The first time came in 2008, which featured Kansas, North Carolina, Memphis and UCLA.
But what happened in 2015? That was the year three No. 1 seeds made the national semifinals: Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin. That likely explains why 25.8 percent of brackets got exactly three Final Four teams correct. The other semifinalist was No. 7 Michigan State, a program known for long tournament runs no matter the seed under coach Tom Izzo.
Going into the 2015 tournament, the undefeated Wildcats were especially popular, getting picked to win the national championship on 46.57 percent of brackets — the highest percentage we’ve seen for a team in the Men’s Bracket Challenge Game. The Spartans’ run as a No. 7 seed was the outlier in the group, at least in terms of how people picked. Both Duke and Wisconsin were selected as champions on more than 10 percent of brackets, while Michigan State went all the way on only 0.96 percent of entries.
On the opposite end is that 2023 grouping. That was the first Final Four in history where no No. 1, 2 or 3 seeds made the semifinals — no top seed even reached the Elite Eight. Three other years also failed to reach triple digits in regards to getting all four teams: 2014, 2017 and 2018.
In 2014, No. 7 UConn and No. 8 Kentucky made surprising runs to the Final Four, with only 0.23 percent of brackets selecting the eventual champion Huskies to win it all. In 2017, No. 7 South Carolina was the biggest surprise, joining No. 1 North Carolina, No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 3 Oregon. Finally, in 2018, Cinderella in the form of No. 11 Loyola Chicago busted brackets on the way to San Antonio, while No. 3 Michigan joined top seeds Villanova and Kansas in the Final Four.
