So how can each player clinch year-end No. 1?
Let’s start with Swiatek. First of all, she needs to win the title—but she doesn’t necessarily need to win it undefeated.
Swiatek will clinch year-end No. 1 if…
… she wins the title undefeated (1,500 points), Sabalenka wins maximum two round-robin matches (400 points) and doesn’t reach the final.
… she wins the title with a 2-1 round-robin record (1,300 points) and Sabalenka wins maximum one round-robin match (200 points) and doesn’t reach the final.
… she wins the title with a 1-2 round-robin record (1,100 points) and Sabalenka doesn’t win any round-robin matches (0 points).
Basically, Swiatek needs a combination of her and Sabalenka’s results that gives her more than the current 1,046-point gap.
Meanwhile, Sabalenka will clinch year-end No. 1 if…
… she wins all three of her round-robin matches.
… she wins two round-robin matches and reaches the final.
… she wins one round-robin match and reaches the final.
In all of those scenarios, it doesn’t matter how Swiatek does.
And more immediately, if Sabalenka wins her first two round-robin matches and Swiatek loses one of her first two round-robin matches, Sabalenka clinches the year-end No. 1 ranking for the first time.
