History of 14 vs. 3 seeds in March MadnessHow much more likely is a 14-3 upset than a 15-2 upset?How much more likely is a 13-4 upset than a 14-3 upset?History of 9 seeds vs. 8 seeds in March MadnessTNT Sports and CBS Sports Announce Tip Times and Matchups for Second Round Games on Sunday, March 23 NCAA tournament: All-time No. 1 seeds, teams, history
Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have shocked a No. 3 in men’s NCAA tournament play, with Oakland becoming the most recent surprise in the 2024 tournament, when the Golden Grizzlies stunned Kentucky, 80-76. While 3s have generally had their way with 14s since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, the lower seed has won enough to catch our attention.
Here’s everything you need to know about 14 seeds vs. 3 seeds in March Madness.
History of 14 vs. 3 seeds in March Madness
Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have upset 3 seeds since 1985, giving them a 23-133 record all-time. That equates to a 14.74 win percentage.
Here are all of the times it’s ever happened.
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Oakland def. Kentucky | 80-76 |
| 2021 | Abilene Christian def. Texas | 53-52 |
| 2016 | Stephen F. Austin def. West Virginia | 70-56 |
| 2015 | Georgia State def. Baylor | 57-56 |
| 2015 | UAB def. Iowa State | 60-59 |
| 2014 | Mercer def. Duke | 78-71 |
| 2013 | Harvard def. New Mexico | 68-62 |
| 2010 | Ohio def. Georgetown | 97-83 |
| 2006 | Northwestern State def. Iowa | 64-63 |
| 2005 | Bucknell def. Kansas | 64-63 |
| 1999 | Weber State def. North Carolina | 76-74 |
| 1998 | Richmond def. South Carolina | 62-61 |
| 1997 | Chattanooga def. Georgia | 73-70 |
| 1995 | Weber State def. Michigan State | 79-72 |
| 1995 | Old Dominion def. Villanova | 89-81 |
| 1992 | ETSU def. Arizona | 87-80 |
| 1991 | Xavier def. Nebraska | 89-84 |
| 1990 | Northern Iowa def. Missouri | 74-71 |
| 1989 | Siena def. Stanford | 80-78 |
| 1988 | Murray State def. NC State | 78-75 |
| 1987 | Austin Peay def. Illinois | 68-67 |
| 1986 | Arkansas Little-Rock def. Notre Dame | 90-83 |
| 1986 | Cleveland State def. Indiana | 83-79 |
Some more tidbits:
- In 20 of the 40 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No. 14 seed has triumphed over a No. 3 seed.
- Only two 14 seeds have ever advanced past the second round: 1986 Cleveland State and 1997 Chattanooga.
- No. 14 seeds are 12-9 in matches decided by three points or fewer. Three of the last five 14-over-3 upsets (Georgia State over Baylor and UAB over Iowa State in 2015, Abilene Christian over Texas in 2021) were decided by one point.
- The biggest upset in a 14 vs. 3 game — 14 points — is tied between SFA’s win in 2016 and when Ohio topped Georgetown 97-83 in 2010.
- Only one 14-3 upset has gone to overtime. That was Old Dominion-Villanova in 1995, which required three extra sessions.
- A 14 seed beat a 3 seed for seven straight years between 1986-92. That streak was snapped in 1993.
- There was a four-year stretch between 2013-16 where a 14 seed upset a 3.
- No school that’s earned a 3 seed has lost to a 14 seed more than once. On the flip side, Weber State has won two opening round games as a 14 seed: 1995 vs. Michigan State and 1999 vs. North Carolina.
How much more likely is a 14-3 upset than a 15-2 upset?
A 14-3 upset is two times more likely than a 15-2 upset. Eleven 15 seeds have pulled off the upset since 1985.
Here’s the full list:
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Princeton def. Arizona | 59-55 |
| 2022 | Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky | 85-79 |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts def. Ohio State | 75-72 |
| 2016 | Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State | 90-81 |
| 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown | 78-68 |
| 2012 | Norfolk State def. Missouri | 86-84 |
| 2012 | Lehigh def. Duke | 75-70 |
| 2001 | Hampton def. Iowa State | 58-57 |
| 1997 | Coppin State def. South Carolina | 78-65 |
| 1993 | Santa Clara def. Arizona | 64-61 |
| 1991 | Richmond def. Syracuse | 73-69 |
How much more likely is a 13-4 upset than a 14-3 upset?
Teams on the 13 seed line have 33 wins in the opening round, meaning it’s happened 10 more times than the 14-over-3 variety. Here’s the full list of 13s that have topped 4s:
| Year | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Yale def. Auburn | 78-76 |
| 2023 | Furman def. Virginia | 68-67 |
| 2021 | Ohio def. Virginia | 62-58 |
| 2021 | North Texas def. Purdue | 78-69 (OT) |
| 2019 | UC Irvine def. Kansas State | 70-64 |
| 2018 | Marshall def. Wichita State | 81-75 |
| 2018 | Buffalo def. Arizona | 89-69 |
| 2016 | Hawaii def. California | 77-66 |
| 2013 | La Salle def. Kansas State | 63-61 |
| 2012 | Ohio def. Michigan | 65-60 |
| 2011 | Morehead State def. Louisville | 62-61 |
| 2010 | Murray State def. Vanderbilt | 66-65 |
| 2009 | Cleveland State def. Wake Forest | 84-69 |
| 2008 | San Diego def. UConn | 70-69 |
| 2008 | Siena def. Vanderbilt | 83-62 |
| 2006 | Bradley def. Kansas | 77-73 |
| 2005 | Vermont def. Syracuse | 60-57 |
| 2003 | Tulsa def. Dayton | 84-71 |
| 2002 | UNC Wilmington def. USC | 93-89 |
| 2001 | Kent State def. Indiana | 77-73 |
| 2001 | Indiana State def. Oklahoma | 70-68 |
| 1999 | Oklahoma def. Arizona | 61-60 |
| 1998 | Valparaiso def. Ole Miss | 70-69 |
| 1996 | Princeton def. UCLA | 43-41 |
| 1995 | Manhattan def. Oklahoma | 77-67 |
| 1993 | Southern def. Georgia Tech | 93-78 |
| 1992 | Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma | 87-83 |
| 1991 | Penn State def. UCLA | 74-69 |
| 1989 | Middle Tennessee def. Florida State | 97-83 |
| 1988 | Richmond def. Indiana | 72-69 |
| 1987 | Xavier def. Missouri | 70-69 |
| 1987 | Missouri State def. Clemson | 65-60 |
| 1985 | Navy def. LSU | 78-55 |
