Remember when Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra visited Chip Kelly at the University of Oregon and came back preaching “pace and space?” He made that trip in the summer of 2011, a couple of months after the Heat fell apart in the Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. As transformative it was for that version of the team, though, recent ones have had a decidedly different style. From 2019-20 (i.e. Year 1 of the Jimmy Butler era) to last season, Miami ranked 29th, 26th, 24th, 27th, 29th and 28th in offensive pace, per Inpredictable.
Now that the Butler era is over, Spoelstra and his staff are once again thinking quick. “We had some rules during the practice, like you got to get the ball over half-court in four seconds or it’s a turnover and stuff like that,” Miami forward Nikola Jović said last week, via the Miami Herald. “Just to get our minds wrapped around that we have to play faster.” After the Heat’s offense ranked No. 21 in the 2024-25 regular season and completely crumbled in their first-round series against the Cleveland Cavaliers, they want to speed things up in the halfcourt, too.
Between this and an opportunistic offseason trade for Norman Powell, Miami is not the same team that it was in the immediate aftermath of the Butler trade. With Tyler Herro out until at least mid-November, though, it’s not clear how much of a difference these changes will make.
The State of Play
Last year: Butler forced his way out of Miami, getting traded to the Warriors after three separate suspensions. The Heat were 21-21 following Butler’s final game on Jan. 21, and they were 24-24 when, in the middle of a game against the Sixers, they agreed to the deal. In exchange for Butler, Josh Richardson and a 2026 second-round pick, Miami got Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell and Golden State’s 2025 first-round pick. The team immediately went into a tailspin, but, after falling to 29-41, the Heat won eight of their next 11 games, qualified for the play-in and then beat both the Bulls and the Hawks to earn the eighth seed … only for the top-seeded Cavaliers to annihiilate them in a four-game sweep that Pat Riley would describe as “humbling.”
The offseason: Miami drafted guard Kasparas Jakučionis with the No. 20 pick it got from the Warriors; re-signed Mitchell to a two-year, $24 million contract; signed Nikola Jović to a four-year, $64.4 million extension; signed-and-traded Duncan Robinson (on a three-year, $48 million deal) to Detroit for Simone Fontecchio, gave up a 2032 second-round pick to send Haywood Highsmith to Brooklyn and reunited with Precious Achiuwa on a one-year minimum deal. The biggest move the Heat made, though, was getting Powell from the Clippers in a deal that only cost them Anderson and Kevin Love.
Vegas over/under: 37.5 wins, per FanDuel SportsBook
The Conversation
Heat believer: I’m amused by all the projections that have the 2025-26 Heat finishing with fewer than 40 wins. I don’t need a statistical model to tell me how this season is going to go because I’ve seen Erik Spoelstra work his magic with rosters like this before. This is a classic Heat team: Not top-heavy like they were in the Big 3 era, but deep with competitive guys who are going to grind out more wins than people think. The summer that they had should be getting more attention! The Norman Powell trade was a masterstroke, Kasparas Jakučionis was a steal and Simone Fontecchio is exactly the type of guy who tends to pop up in Miami and immediately have a career year. To me, the Heat winning 30-something games is less likely than them starting at an above-.500 pace, making a win-now trade and pushing 50 wins.
Heat skeptic: Those projections seem fair to me. I don’t doubt that the Heat can get stops, but, uh, what about offense? Is there a reason to expect they will get to the rim and the free-throw line more often than they did at the end of last season? Are they going to grab way more offensive rebounds? Take way more 3s? I haven’t forgotten how hopeless they looked against the Cavs in the first round, and I’m not that jazzed about the roster as presently constructed. The Powell trade was a win, value-wise, and he’ll help them survive without Tyler Herro early in the season, but he and Herro have duplicative skill sets. If they don’t make another big move, this is probably a play-in team again.
Heat believer: You’re underestimating the Heat and overestimating the rest of the East. I’m telling you, this is the sort of team Spoelstra has maximized before. They’re going to turn defense into offense, and, when they are in the halfcourt, there’s going to be more movement and much less matchup-hunting. Powell and Bam Adebayo are going to work beautifully together, Nikola Jović’s playmaking is really going to pop in the new system and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is going to bounce back after a shaky sophomore season. I have no doubt that this team will be better than 2025-26 iterations of the Celtics and Pacers, and I’m not particularly optimistic about Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s supporting cast or Joel Embiid‘s health. If the Cavs, Knicks and Magic represent the East’s top tier, then Miami is firmly in the second tier with the Pistons and Hawks.
Heat skeptic: I’d sooner put the Heat with the Raptors and Bulls, other teams that could theoretically make the playoffs in a weak year but don’t have a particularly high ceiling. If I’m wrong, though, it’ll probably be because Kel’El Ware breaks out. Given the numbers he has put up in the preseason, I’m surprised you haven’t even brought him up yet. Maybe I’m scarred from the Hassan Whiteside experience, but, especially after Spoelstra called out Ware for a lack of professionalism and consistency in his approach in July, I’m hesitant to get too excited about the preseason stuff. My expectation is that Jović will start at the 4 and the Ware-Adebayo frontcourt will only be seen in small doses.
Heat believer: So you’re saying you’re Ware-y about playing the two bigs together? Got it! But seriously, you should adjust those expectations. Ware is simply too talented for your plan. He needs to play at least 25-30 minutes a night, and that’s not happening unless he’s sharing the court with Adebayo. Also, it’s not like the Heat have a ton of other options at the 4, and that’s probably intentional. If you have two extremely mobile bigs who can play inside and out, you have to see what they can do together. Spoelstra will figure out the right pieces to put around them.
Heat skeptic: The other option is to play guys like Wiggins and Jaquez at the 4 a lot, since Miami salary-dumped Haywood Highsmith in the summer. (That was a bummer, by the way.) I know that isn’t ideal, though, and this reinforces what I’ve been saying here: Miami is mid, man. I’d much rather bring Davion Mitchell off the bench than make him my starting point guard, but, on this team, I’d reluctantly start him for the sake of point-of-attack defense. I don’t think the double-big look jibes with the plan to push the ball and make quick decisions, but you might be right about them going to it anyway. You are absolutely right that Spoelstra has solved plenty of lineup problems and overachieved with players who’d been cast aside by other teams. But turning this particular group into a second-tier playoff team seems like too tall of a task.
