The Monday NBA schedule features an eight-game slate, including one matchup featuring the league’s fastest-paced team against one of its slowest-paced teams. The Memphis Grizzlies, who play at the fastest pace in the league, will host the defending champion Boston Celtics (-4.5, 236.5). Boston ranks 27th in pace, so which team controls the pace could determine the winner. It will also have a sizeable effect on NBA player props. How should the contrast of styles affect your view on NBA props on betting sites? Ja Morant had 32 points against the Celtics in their first meeting on Dec. 7 and is +255 on FanDuel Sportsbook to score 30 points again on Monday.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value going into the season. The odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Josh Giddey Over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
This number has already moved from 34.5 to as high as 36.5 at some sportsbooks early on Monday, so this number could continue to rise throughout the day. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best odds on the Over at -105 at 35.5 PRA, so this may be one to jump on quickly. Giddey has gone Over this total in seven of his last eight games, but part of why Oh likes this play is narrative-driven as well with Giddey, now on the Bulls, going against his former team in the Thunder.
“Our projection assumes Oklahoma City to play its league-leading defense all game long, but if it’s out of hand then perhaps there is a lot of fourth-quarter scoring and Chicago should leave Giddey in vs. his old team,” Oh said.
Derrick White Over 0.5 blocks (-160)
The model projects White to block a shot in 75% of simulations and this line implies a 61.5% chance of covering, according to Oh. White had a stretch in February where he only blocked a shot of one of eight games, but Oh notes if you remove an eight-game stretch this season, White would have a block in more than 70% of contests. The Celtics guard has at least one block in four of his last six games, and he had three blocks in back-to-back games in mid-March. BetMGM currently offers the best odds at -160, which shows strong value based on the simulations and with White averaging a block per game this season.
“His Over rate last season was nearly 72% and if you remove a 1-7 over stretch in February, he’d be over 70% this season as well,” Oh said. “With him coming in 7-3 Over I see him as a 70%+ ‘blocker’ per game and will take advantage of a line being adjusted down based on a single eight-game stretch.”
Alex Sarr Over 1.5 blocks points (+130)
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft is coming off a three-block performance for Washington against the Nets on Saturday and Sarr has multiple blocks in four of his last five games. He’s played at least 25 minutes in six straight games and he has multiple blocks in seven of the last 11 contests where he’s played at least 25 minutes. A home matchup against the Heat bodes well for his Over on blocks as well, according to Oh. Other betting apps are offering plus-money odds on Sarr, but the +130 odds on DraftKings is the best number by a significant margin.
“Sarr’s (blocks) average is considerably higher at home (1.8 vs 1.3 on the road) and his Over percentage is much higher (57% vs. 42%),” Oh said. “Other centers with a 1.4 to 1.7 block average have averaged two blocks (4-1 over) at home vs Miami vs just a 0.8 average (1-5 over) at Miami.”
Keon Johnson Over 16.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)
The model projects Johnson to go Over his total in each of these three categories but finds the best value comes by combining them all in a PRA bet. He’s averaging 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 50 games as a starter this season and he should remain in the starting lineup for the Nets on Monday. Johnson has played at least 27 minutes in five of his last six games as well. Oh expects another heavier workload for Monday. Other sportsbooks have juiced Johnson’s odds to the -120 range, while Bet365 is showing the best value at -115 odds.
“I also think we may be underprojecting his minutes,” Oh proclaimed. “When he plays 28 to 32 minutes, the Over is 19-8 vs. just 5-17 when he plays 20 to 27 minutes.”
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 steals + blocks (+180)
The Magic guard had two steals and a block against the Kings on Saturday and the model and his season-long averages shows value on Monday. The model projects 1.26 steals and 0.5 blocks for Pope against the Clippers and Pope is averaging 1.8 steals + blocks per game this season. The Magic have the No. 1 scoring defense (105.8 ppg) while ranking in the top 10 in steals and blocks per game with Pope as a key reason for that.
“He is in a buy low spot after coming in 8-2 Under, but he did just have a two-steal, one-block game playing just 24 minutes,” Oh said. “He is not scoring much with just 8, 0, 3 and 9 in his last four games so hopefully he figures out that his defense and getting steals is his way of contributing. Even with his limited recent steal + block production, the Over is still 22-15 at home this season.”
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Monday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
