The regular season is winding down and the NBA playoff picture is starting to come into focus. This is also the time of the year when NBA superstars are starting to ramp up their workloads to prepare for the postseason, which means you can find value in NBA player props. Nikola Jokic has missed six of the last 10 games, but he’s scheduled to be in the lineup for the Nuggets on Sunday against the Pacers. Jokic has averaged a triple-double and is +135 to record his 32nd of the season in the latest NBA props from DraftKings Sportsbook,.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. It has revealed some of its top NBA prop bets for Sunday’s 11-game slate.
Jaylen Brown Over 5.5 rebounds (+130)
Brown is averaging 5.9 rebounds per game this season and has averaged at least 5.5 rebounds per game in each of his last six seasons. He’s also reached at least six rebounds in 34 of the 61 games that he’s player this season, so getting plus money here is compelling.
The model projects 6.7 rebounds in a prop that has a 4 out of 5 star rating. DraftKings offers the best odds at +130.
Evan Mobley Under 32.5 points/assists/rebounds (-114)
An NBA all-star for the first time in his fourth season, Mobley is averaging 18.6 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game for the season. However, the Cavaliers have already clinched home-court advantage so they won’t be incentivized to overextend themselves against Sacramento in a game where they’re favored by 10. The risk of Mobley and other Cleveland starters not playing late in a potential blowout is too great here.
The model is projecting that Mobley finishes with 27.9 combined points, rebounds and assists and also lists this as a 4-star play. Most books have this number at 31.5 but you can get it at 32.5 (-114) on FanDuel.
Devin Booker Under 40.5 points/assists/rebounds (-110)
The Suns are losers of five straight and are now two games behind the Kings for an NBA Play-In Tournament spot. Now they draw a tough matchup in New York against a Knicks squad that is 21 games over .500 (49-28) and looking to seal up the No. 3 spot in the East.
The model projects just 35.1 points, rebounds and assists for Booker in a 4-star prop. BetMGM is offering the best odds for this prop at -110.
Brandin Podziemski Under 14.5 points (-110)
The matchup isn’t ideal for the Warriors guard in this one, as Houston has won 14 of 16 and ranks fifth in the NBA in points allowed per game (109.1) and fourth in defensive rating (110.0) for the season. Podziemski has scored 26 or more in three of four games but is still only averaging 11.4 points per game and the trends against defenses of this caliber aren’t encouraging.
Podziemski has gone under his total points market in 5 of his last 6 games when favored at home and playing an opponent with a top third defense, with an average of 6.0 total points per game. BetMGM currently has the best odds at -110 if you’re looking to get this number at 14.5. The model projects he scores 11.5 points on average.
Bruce Brown Over 16.5 points/rebounds (-120)
The seven-year NBA veteran is playing for his sixth team after being acquired by the Pelicans in a deadline deal this season. In the 21 games since he arrived in New Orleans, he’s averaging 7.2 points and 4.3 rebounds per game but he’s eclipsed his points + rebounds market in three of his last five games when the Pelicans have been underdogs.
The model is projecting that he averages 20.5 points and rebounds on Sunday against the Bucks. The best price of -120 is available at Caesars Sportsbook.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Sunday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
