Preview and Prediction
Pegula came to Indian Wells as the WTA’s in-form player of the moment, and that hasn’t changed. With her title in Dubai last month, and her three victories here, she’s on an eight match win streak. The last player to beat her? That would be Elena Rybakina.
In fact, Rybakina has beaten Pegula in three important matches since October—the first in Billie Jean King Cup, the second at the WTA Finals, and the third in the semifinals at the Australian Open. The first of those wasn’t competitive, but the last two were. Pegula was close to pushing their AO semi to a third set, but Rybakina edged her 9-7 in a tiebreaker. It had to a be a heartbreaker for the American.
That match was similar to some of the tough losses that Pegula has taken to Aryna Sabalenka in recent years. Sabalenka and Rybakina are both power players who get in the first punch, before Pegula adjusts to the pace, finds her timing, and makes a run in the second set. If that pattern plays out again on Thursday, Pegula should be used to it: She dropped the first set to Donna Vekic and Jelena Ostapenko this week, before bouncing back to win in three.
All of which makes this a tough pick. Rybakina just won the WTA Finals and the Australian Open, and beat Pegula at each event. But Pegula has the eight-match win streak, and seems still to be discovering new things about her game at age 32. Pegula may be due for a win like this, but the safe choice is to take the puncher over the counter-puncher, because the match will be on her racquet. Winner: Rybakina
