Kostyuk has won four of her last five matches and is coming off a tremendous 2024 season. She went 34-20, had a career-high 63.0% winning percentage and made two finals on the year. However, Kostyuk’s hold percentage was just 63.7% last year. She’s a poor server and a very good returner. That said, this is a match in which we should see a bunch of breaks. But Kenin has a slight edge as a server, and she’s likely going to be the one that dictates play from the baseline. The American is aggressive and plays effective quick-strike tennis when she’s in form.
Interestingly enough, Kostyuk could theoretically pose some problems for Kenin. The Ukrainian is one of the best pure athletes in the sport, and if she wanted to lock things down and force Kenin to play a bunch of extra shots then the American would be at risk of unraveling. That’s always possible given how sloppy Kenin can be from a fundamental standpoint. But that’s simply not Kostyuk’s game. She’s a big hitter and likes to swing freely at open spots of the court, so we’re going to see a lot of points won in the 0 to 4 shot range.
Realistically, this is a match that Kenin can win outright, so I’ll also have a little something on the big plus-money odds. But the set spread is the safer play. And I’m looking forward to seeing how this one plays out. Kenin still has plenty of time to get her career back on track; talent has never been an issue for her. Hopefully her recent run of form is a sign of things to come.
Pick: Kenin +1.5 Sets (-164)
