When the ball is bouncing a little higher, Swiatek has time to get returns in and reset points. That neutralizes the Rybakina serve, her biggest weapon. From the baseline, Rybakina’s ability to maneuver the baseline, construct points and even finish rallies just pales in comparison to Swiatek’s. The Pole should have a lot of success in this match by hitting with heavy topspin and working Rybakina from corner to corner.
In the last round, Swiatek earned an emotional 6-7 (1), 6-4, 6-4 win over Linda Noskova. It truly felt like Iga was on the brink of elimination, as Noskova was playing lights-out tennis and the Pole looked anxious. However, when Swiatek is able to fight her way through those types of battles, the psychological release can lead to some brilliant tennis the remainder of the tournament. At last year’s Roland Garros, Naomi Osaka nearly beat Swiatek, but Iga found a way through. From there, she beat the pulp out of everyone. I can see something similar happening here—especially with Sabalenka and Coco Gauff already eliminated.
This really feels like the last remaining obstacle between Swiatek and her fourth consecutive Doha title, so it’s possible the Pole will have some nerves here. However, the conditions are favorable for her, making it pretty easy to envision a scenario in which we get a vintage 6-2 or 6-1 set. That would pave the way for a comfortable cover.
Pick: Swiatek -3.5 Games (-105)
