It’s a good time to be really good at basketball, and De’Aaron Fox is really good at basketball. Through that lens, it’s no surprise that he just signed a four-year, $229 million extension with the Spurs. That locks him up through 2030, when he’ll be 32 years old, at which point he will have racked up $416 million in career earnings.
That’s more than Chris Paul, one of the greatest point guards ever. Fox has made one All-Star team and never been past the first round of the playoffs. Like I said, it’s a good time to be really good at basketball.
Let’s look at the Fox deal through three lenses.
1. Is this an overpay?
In a vacuum, probably. But the Spurs are uniquely positioned to manage one inflated contract and within the context of their timeline, which we’ll get to in a minute, it makes sense.
But even in the grander context of NBA contracts, it bears repeating that Fox is really good at basketball. There’s a lot of talk going around right now that he’s not even a top-10 point guard, which is definitely debatable, but that speaks way more to the depth of talent across the league.
Truth be told, there are no more than six — personally, I would argue five — point guards that you can definitively rank above Fox on the positional ladder.
For me, Harden is highly debatable, especially when you consider he’s nearly a decade older than Fox. But the guy did make All-NBA last season, so fine, take Harden. That’s six.
After that we’re into the Trae Young/Ja Morant/Darius Garland tier. Maybe you put Tyrese Maxey in there, too. (I’m leaving Damian Lillard out of this discussion because of the uniqueness of his Milwaukee buyout and subsequent Portland signing).
In this group, there are cases to be made for any one of these guys, Fox included, as the second-tier standard. Put them in whatever order you like, but the bottom line is they’re all on max contracts.
For Morant and Garland, an All-NBA selection is required to reach the max value of their deal. Maxey’s was a rookie extension. Young, Garland and Morant are all eligible for extensions, and you can bet they’ll be using a number at or exceeding Fox’s as a starting point in negotiations. All of these numbers, mind you, are based on percentages of the salary cap at the time of signing. Fox’s number could end up lower if the cap doesn’t raise expectedly.
That’s all minutiae, though. Broadly speaking, these are all roughly equal players who are being paid roughly the same. Now, the difference with Fox’s deal is it’s only four years, so the annual value is considerably higher than the aforementioned group. But he’ll also be coming off the books at a specific point in San Antonio’s timeline. Which brings us to the Spurs-specific context of this deal.
2. How does this deal impact future cap sheets?
Fox is expensive, yes, but an affordable bridge given the pristine state of San Antonio’s cap sheet. If the Spurs were already tied to another max contract, adding Fox as a second with Wembanyama on the way would be a lot more prohibitive. But that’s not the case. Devin Vassell is the only other player making more than $19 million this coming year, and even when Wembanyama’s extension begins in 2027-28 the Spurs are positioned to stay well below the tax line.
That gives them two years until a possible third max contract comes onto the books in Stephon Castle, and that two-year bridge is when San Antonio is planning to go from the lottery to a playoff team. That’s important. It’s an honest shot for Wembanyama, Castle and this year’s No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper to experience high-stakes NBA basketball in the initial stages of their respective learning curves.
In the event that this group stays together, by the time Harper’s rookie extension kicks in, Fox will be in the last year of his deal. At that point, the Spurs could be in position to follow the OKC blueprint of three young max guys who have grown through winning together.
3. Will the Spurs trade him?
The smart money says yes, Fox will be traded before the end of this deal, if only well down the line when he’s an expiring contract and the Spurs are ready to move forward with the aforementioned trio while extracting some value in return for Fox. But it could even happen a lot sooner than that.
It depends on a couple factors, beginning with the development of Castle and, more specifically, Harper, who will be San Antonio’s long-term point guard if all goes according to plan. If Harper is trending that way early (this isn’t a lock; just as Portland about Scoot Henderson), the Spurs could look to trade Fox earlier in the life of this deal if there are any takers at this high of a number.
That’s the other part of the equation. We covered how Fox’s deal makes sense for the Spurs, but in another cap context, this is a huge number for a non-superstar. Trading him would not be easy, if only from a salary-matching standpoint.
Again, even if Fox stays in San Antonio for the full life of this contract, they are set up to stay below the tax until, at worst, 2029. But my guess is that one of Fox, Castle or maybe even Harper will be traded by 2028. Which of these two San Antonio decides to move forward with next to Wembanyama beyond this upcoming bridge era he is going to be one of the most intriguing storylines to follow for the next few years.
