Here we are, in the first round of the 2025 NBA playoffs, but this one is for all the marbles. The Los Angeles Clippers came up with a resounding win at home in Game 6 to push this series the distance. Now it’s on the Denver Nuggets to protect their home court as Game 7 is Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET. One of the best series in this postseason has lived up to the hype, but all of that does not matter now. The winner will move on to face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference semifinals, while the loser will go home to lick their wounds.
Now that the 2025 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets
Odds via FanDuel
Conventional wisdom in Game 7s says to pick the home team. A stat that is frequently thrown around is that home teams have won roughly 80% of Game 7s in NBA history. But that track record hasn’t remotely held up recently. We’ve played four postseasons since the Orlando bubble, and those postseasons have included 12 Game 7s. Road teams won eight of them. At this point, what you’re really asking is which team you think is better. By the slimmest of margins, I believe that team is the Clippers. They’ve outscored Denver in the series. They can throw far more looks at Nikola Jokić than the Nuggets can at their offense, as Denver’s defense has more or less boiled down to “leave the worst shooter open and hope he misses.” It’s been a great series, but the better team will win Game 7. The Pick: Clippers +1.5
Always, always, always take unders in Game 7s. These are not offensively inclined games. After six games, teams tend to know each other’s offenses so well that they can practically call out the other side’s plays. The last 23 Game 7s have averaged around 198 total points of offense. Obviously, this line is much higher, and we’re dealing with low-volume 3-point shooting teams. Do you trust role players to make their shots in an environment this tense? I don’t. Gimme the under like always. The Pick: Under 206
Let’s roll with this trend of low-scoring Game 7s. Jokić has averaged 16.6 rebounds in his five Game 7s. Why is that? Because teams are missing a lot of shots and he’s playing a lot of minutes with Denver’s season on the line. In those five Game 7s, he has never been held below 13 rebounds. Why start now? The Pick: Jokić Over 12.5 Rebounds
