Kalinskaya is coming over from Miami and hasn’t played a clay-court match in a long time. Changing surfaces is always a tricky proposition, and this isn’t the most confident player to begin with. Kalinskaya’s best performance of the entire 2025 season was a 6-7 (3), 6-2, 6-7 (2) loss to Jessica Pegula in South Beach. And while it’s definitely nice that the Russian was able to go toe-to-toe with one of the best players in the world, it still ended with Kalinskaya losing. That said, this isn’t a player that knows the feeling of winning matches right now. That makes her vulnerable.
Realistically, there’s always a chance Kalinskaya will snap back into form and start rattling off wins. But at the moment, the 26-year-old has a 67.5% hold percentage, which is down from last year’s 71.7% hold percentage. And her break percentage is below 30% for the first time since 2020. She’s not doing anything at the level we’re used to, and her rally tolerance has also been a problem. So, if McNally just shows up and plays a decent match, she’ll be in this right until the end. It also doesn’t hurt that the entire crowd will be pulling for her.
Pick: McNally ML (+120)
