Across its last 10 editions, the women’s singles championship at Wimbledon has been won by a top 5 seed only once, Ash Barty doing so in 2021. Only four of those 10 champions were even seeded in the top 10, and across the last eight years, eight different women have lifted the Venus Rosewater Dish at SW19.
There have been upsets and surprises across all Majors on the women’s side this decade. They are not coming off a generation that produced consistent winners like the men’s ‘Big Three’. The best-of-three format, as opposed to best-of-five, can be more unforgiving and not allow the top players the luxury of time to come back in matches in which they unexpectedly find themselves behind. But nowhere is the flux as wild as it is at Wimbledon, where the last three women’s champions were ranked World No. 31, 42, and 17, respectively.
Its reasons may include the lethargy that sets in by the time Wimbledon rolls around, right on the heels of a crowded clay season and an intense period on hard courts in the spring, which the men usually avoid. Deeper analysis may show that grass as a surface has become alien to many of the playing elite: the season only lasts a few weeks, with many players avoiding tuneups after the French Open, making the Championships in London their only event on the surface throughout the year.
Regardless of its reasoning, recent history suggests that the women’s draw at Wimbledon has become impossible to call. Upsets are almost certain, and it will be no different going into this year’s edition, which begins on Monday afternoon.
Charge to victory will be led by the top two seeds, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, both of whom played a patchy, yet enthralling final at Roland Garros earlier this month. The two seem to have buried the hatchet after mild controversy was raked up following Sabalenka’s post-match comments, in which she put more emphasis on her own errors for the loss, failing to give Gauff an adequate amount of credit.
Gauff’s superior defence prevailed over Sabalenka’s relentless attack on that occasion – presumably, those natural strengths should mean a reversal of fortunes on grass, which traditionally favours the strike-first attackers.
But Sabalenka, while the top seed and pre-tournament favourite, has not always fared so well on the low-bouncing, skidding grass at SW19. In three of the last five editions, she has failed to make it to London at all due to injury. Her best finish is reaching the semifinals in 2021, and her 11-5 win-loss record at the tournament is nothing to boast about.
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Potential snares
Her draw is also littered with potential banana skins. Two-time semifinalist Elina Svitolina, 2023 champion and former grass player Marketa Vondrousova, Paula Badosa and home favourite Emma Raducanu are all present in her quarter. Her predicted quarterfinal is against Madison Keys, who beat her in the Australian Open final in January, and semifinal is against last year’s finalist Jasmine Paolini, both of whom must be put into consideration for a title run here. Keys’ smooth, flat hitting and superior serving makes grass her best surface and Paolini’s draw is relatively easier, and she already proved last year she has grass acumen.
If Sabalenka is to go on to reach the final as the bookmakers’ have tipped her to do, it won’t be without its hurdles.
Gauff’s record at Wimbledon is 11-5, too, and she has failed to make much of an impression at SW19 ever since her breakthrough in 2019, when, as a 15-year-old, she defeated Venus Williams. Her lack of a useful, powerful forehand and her use of the extreme western grip, which forces her to spend extra milliseconds in adjusting from serve to forehand and makes return strategy against her easy, have been targeted in the past.
She has a tough first-round assignment in Dayana Yastremska – the kind of match that has Day 1 upset written all over it – and 2022 champion Elena Rybakina or former World No. 1 Iga Swiatek would be the predicted quarterfinal opponent. Swiatek has struggled with the extreme western grip syndrome herself, never making it past the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Each of the last three seasons, the pre-tournament agenda had been set by her, with expectations of her replicating her clay success on grass. Now that she is free of that anticipation, on a barren run that awkwardly sees her seeded as low as eighth, perhaps a more realistic title charge can be mounted, which, despite her status in the women’s game, would also account for an upset.
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Swiatek reached the final in the tuneup in Bad Homburg, where she lost to Jessica Pegula on Sunday. That fixture could be a semifinal, and third-seeded Pegula may be a sleeper pick given the relative ease of her draw, which sees defending champion Barbora Krejcikova, the 17th seed who is yet to have done anything of note in the year since she won tennis’s biggest prize, in her quarter.
But matchups and draws aside, the chaos that ensues in the women’s draw at SW19 is inevitable. It will be up to one of the big names, chiefly Sabalenka or Gauff, to stand up and return some order.
