The world No. 3, Carlos Alcaraz, has some more work to do than Zverev to catch Sinner, but it’s certainly possible.
Going into this week, Alcaraz has 7,410 ranking points. Between now and Sinner’s return he’ll be dropping 1,400 points from the same period last year—1,000 for winning Indian Wells, 200 for reaching the quarterfinals of Miami and 200 for reaching the quarterfinals of Madrid.
With that, Alcaraz has a base of 6,010 points that he can add to, so he would pass Sinner if he can make up that 3,720-point gap.
In that period, Alcaraz will likely play the same four Masters 1000 events as Zverev, as well as two ATP 500s in Doha (this week) and Barcelona in April. It’s a longer shot—he would probably have to win at least one or two of the Masters 1000 events and have a few more deep runs, but it’s not out of reach.
For everyone from No. 4 and below on the ATP rankings right now, passing Sinner isn’t very likely. None of them even have 5,000 points on their ranking going into this week, and that’s not even considering all the points they’ll be dropping in the next three months.
We’ll check back in on the No. 1 ranking situation in the coming weeks…
