All signs would seem to point to another Sabalenka win on Friday. She has dropped just seven games in her first two matches. She lifted her level exactly when she needed to in her 6-3, 6-3 win over Sorana Cirstea in the third round. And she’s the defending champion at this event. Keys, meanwhile, will be coming off her marathon with Shnaider.
That said, Keys is one of the few players who can, as Sabalenka put it, “overhit” her. When her ground strokes are clicking, as they were for much of their matches in Melbourne last year and New York in 2024, there’s not a whole lot that even Sabalenka can do about it.
But there’s also a reason Sabalenka is 5-2 against Keys, and has been the higher-ranked player for the entirety of this decade. She’s a better defender, she tempers her pace with more topspin margin, and her level doesn’t swing as wildly from one set to the next. After what happened last year, she’ll be on her guard on Friday.
Winner: Sabalenka
