You also can’t mention these two without bringing up the 2023 US Open semifinals. Keys won the first set of that match 6-0, and she had a chance to serve it out in the second. Then, even after letting the second set slip away, Keys was up a break in the third. She showed she has what it takes to compete with Sabalenka on a massive stage—even if the Belarusian stole it in the end. Keys just has to be mentally solid in this match, but she seems like she’s in a great place right now. And her genuine excitement just to be back in the final of a Slam should serve her well.
The only thing I’m really concerned about is the tape Keys is playing with on her left thigh. The American insists she’s feeling alright, and that’s good enough to take a shot on her. Honestly, at the current prices, it’s Keys or nothing. I wouldn’t want to be laying -303 with Sabalenka, or hoping she wins in straights against this caliber of opponent.
Overall, Sabalenka’s best level is definitely a little too much for Keys. She’s the No. 1 player in the world for a reason, and her hard-court dominance over the last few years has been something else. But recent form might be favoring Keys coming into this match, and these odds don’t seem to be giving her much of a chance.
Pick: Keys +1.5 Sets (-111) & Keys ML (+250 – sprinkle)
