Djokovic has dominated the head-to-head series against Zverev, 8-4. But these two haven’t played since 2023. Since then, Zverev has gotten better while Djokovic has put more mileage on his body. The mental game will determine this meeting: Zverev has to believe he can win this match, and if he doesn’t, Djokovic will quickly brush him to the side. We just saw the Serbian do that to one of the best players in the world—someone who beat Djokovic in two Wimbledon finals. Throughout his career, it has been said that Djokovic can take an opponent’s soul. That’s what happened in his quarterfinal with Alcaraz.
If Zverev is able to shrug off the fact that there’s a legend on the other side of the net, the matchup is quite nice for him. While Djokovic is one of the best returners ever, Zverev can neutralize that by hitting his spots. And Zverev has the length you need to get a lot of Djokovic’s more precise serves back.
It’s also not insignificant that this match will be played during the day. The ball should bounce a little higher, potentially going right into Zverev’s strike zones. It’ll also be bouncing faster, making his serves harder to return. On top of that, Djokovic can occasionally struggle when stuck underneath the sun.
This feels like a real opportunity for Zverev, who few seem to have any interest in backing. Djokovic is wounded and in a big letdown spot, and there’s no guarantee he’s better than Zverev at this point in his career. Zverev didn’t win a major in 2024, but he was pretty clearly the third-best player on tour.
Lean: Zverev To Win (+138)
