As for Sinner, even if he no longer needs to go undefeated, he does have a win streak to continue—he has won seven straight at the ATP Finals going back to his flawless run from 2024. He also has a home crowd to please, which is something he seems to care about.
Motivations aside, the head-to-head says that Sinner will be the clear favorite. He’s 7-1 against Shelton; the American’s only win came in their first match, 7-6 in the third, in Shanghai in 2023. Since then, Sinner hasn’t dropped a set. Shelton’s lefty serve spins into Sinner’s strong backhand return, and the Italian hits with superior pace and accuracy from the baseline. This year, they played in the semifinals at the Australian Open, and the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, and Sinner won all six sets.
Does Shelton have any reason to hope? I’ll say two things.
In six of their last seven meetings, he did push one set to a tiebreaker, so it may be a matter of him winning a few big points that he usually loses to Sinner.
And while Shelton may be weary after a long season, this is a chance for him to set a new marker for the future. This season was proof that, if he wants to win majors, he’s going to have go through Sinner. It seems like a moment when he could—possibly, maybe—catch him a little off guard and start to gain some belief against him.
The Pick: Sinner
