Looking at their head-to-head, one thing becomes clear right away: Musetti is going to need all the help he can get. Alcaraz is 6-1 against him, and has won their last six meetings. Granted, five of those seven matches were played on clay—including all three in 2025. But that’s actually worse news for Musetti, because Alcaraz won the two on hard courts in straight sets.
“Great crowd, tough court,” is how you might sum up this event, and especially this match, for Musetti. His one-handed backhand and spin-heavy strokes have traditionally worked better on clay and grass, while Alcaraz long ago made hard courts his home, and is hungry to finally hold the year-end trophy. He hits the ball harder and flatter than Musetti, gets to the net faster, and has the advantage with the serve and the return. Alcaraz should also be able to pick on Musetti’s one-hander.
It’s possible that, if Jannik Sinner loses on Wednesday, Alcaraz will already have clinched No. 1 by the time this match starts. If so, he might have a letdown, having accomplished the first goal of his week. Even then, though, he’ll be the favorite.
The Pick: Alcaraz
