Miami Open Match Preview
Paolini’s return to form in Miami has been one of the more pleasant aspects of the tournament. Last year’s late-career breakout star stumbled out of the gate in 2025, and it seemed possible that her 2024 success would end up being an aberration. Over the past week, though, she out-dueled Naomi Osaka in a crowd-pleasing three-setter, and didn’t have a letdown against Magda Linette in the next round. Paolini’s backhand in particular has been sharper.
Is it sharp enough to bother Sabalenka? The world No. 1 seems to be on a mission to win a title after failing to close the deal in a pair of frustrating finals in Melbourne and Indian Wells. Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set so far in Miami.
She’s also 3-1 against Paolini at the WTA level. They’ve played just once since Paolini began her rise into the Top 5, on hard courts in Riyadh last fall, and Sabalenka won, 6-3, 7-5.
Looking at the head-to-head, and looking at the stature of the two players—the 5-foot-3 Paolini gives away seven inches—Sabalenka would seem to have a big edge in this matchup. She has an advantage on her serve, forehand, and backhand. But Paolini’s speed, ball-striking, and dynamic style could prove irritating for Sabalenka, especially if the score stays close and the crowd gets behind the Italian, the way crowds tend to do. Winner: Sabalenka—Steve Tignor
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