The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast continuing rainfall activity over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Gujarat all through this week.
After a slow start this August, the Southwest Monsoon picked up intensity and has continued to batter the hill states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and parts of coastal Maharashtra during the past 10 days. After Tuesday, the intensity of the rain could see a dip over Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan, officials said. Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal are likely to see intermittent heavy spells towards the second half of the week.
The monsoon trough currently runs close to its normal position. Officials said there exists an upper air cyclonic circulation over the Northwest Bay of Bengal, off Odisha, and another similar system to the south of Haryana. A connecting trough between these two systems has added to the existing ripe monsoon conditions.
As such, the IMD has warned of isolated very heavy rainfall over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, and West Rajasthan till Tuesday; over East Rajasthan till Wednesday, and Uttarakhand on Friday and Saturday.
Since the start of this monsoon season on June 1, only four states – Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya and Bihar – currently show a deficit in rainfall. This season (till August 24), the all-India rainfall was 4 per cent above normal at 674.2 mm.
August, which sees the second highest rainfall of the season, has this year recorded a stark variation – the first half experiencing below normal rainfall, followed by above normal rainfall since August 15 (see box). IMD officials said that the first fortnight did not see favourable conditions but since August 15, there have been back-to-back systems developing over the North Bay of Bengal, and their subsequent landward movement has caused widespread rainfall mainly over Central and Northwest India.
“The systems went on to intensify into depression even. This resulted in moisture incursion from the Arabian Sea, which brought good rainfall along the Western Ghats, including Mumbai, last week,” said an IMD official.
