Not only will Draper be prone to a physical and mental letdown in Rome, but the conditions there are nothing like those in Madrid. The Brit’s big serve and powerful baseline strokes were extremely difficult for opponents to deal with at altitude. In Rome, players will have an easier time reading his serves, and they’ll also have a little more time to track down shots along the baseline. So, Draper’s ability to end rallies might be weakened a bit.
Darderi is also a very good clay-court player, and he’s playing in front of his home crowd. It wasn’t long ago that Darderi won a title in Marrakech, earning straight-set wins over Roberto Carballes Baena and Tallon Griekspoor in the final two matches. And while he has struggled a little since, this is a really good spot for him. Darderi has a good serve, a big forehand and the ability to come out on top in longer rallies. And to add to all of that, nobody expects him to win this match. So, while playing at home can sometimes lead to more pressure, he’s really in a house-money situation in which he’ll have a ton of adrenaline.
Overall, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if Draper comes out on top. This is a Top 5 player in the world playing against the world No. 46. There’s a significant gap in talent. But sometimes you have to take risks and play spots. Betting on sports is never as simple as “better player/team wins.” So, with this being a favorable spot for Darderi, I’m playing him to force a decider—and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.
Pick: Darderi +1.5 Sets (-110)
