Despite losing Stephen Curry to a hamstring injury in the first half of Game 1, the Golden State Warriors hold a 1-0 series lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves heading into Game 2 on Thursday. Curry will miss multiple games because of his injury, so now Jimmy Butler will have to lead Golden State in his absence. Butler had 20 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists in the Game 1 win and the latest NBA player prop odds list his over/under for total points at 24.5, with Caesars offering the best price on the over (-105) and FanDuel offering the best price on the Under (-114).
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Julius Randle over 1.5 3-pointers made (+100)
The Timberwolves just endured the worst two-game 3-point shooting stretch in NBA playoff history, going 12-for-76 from beyond the arc combined in their Game 5 win over the Lakers and their Game 1 loss to the Warriors. However, Randle averaged 1.6 made 3-pointers per game this season and had six made 3-pointers in four regular-season games against Golden State in the regular season.
“After two straight insanely bad 3-point shooting nights from the Timberwolves we knew we’d have buy low odds for their top 3-point shooting players and looked for the best value,” Oh said. “We found Randle as the ‘classic’ situation we love where the player’s average (1.6) and projection (1.7) are over the line and we are getting plus money.”
Jimmy Butler Under 38.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
Butler’s performance helped carry the Warriors across the line on Tuesday, but now Minnesota will be keying in on the six-time NBA all-star. The Timberwolves ranked fifth in the NBA in points allowed per game (109.3), sixth in defensive rating (111.5) and were top half of the NBA in offensive (25.8%) and defensive (75.1%) rebounding percentages. In his last 13 games where his team has been an underdog, Butler has gone Under on his PRA total 10 times and he’s only averaging 22.7 combined points, rebounds and assists during those contests.
BetMGM and Caesars are offering the best value on the Under here. Plus, you can get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if your first bet loses at BetMGM.
Anthony Edwards Under 34.5 points + rebounds (+100)
After averaging 5.7 rebounds per game during the regular season, Edwards has been on a bit of a rebounding tear during the NBA playoffs. He’s averaging 9.3 rebounds per game during the postseason and has 25 rebounds over his last two outings. However, he’s only scored 38 points and is 14-for-41 from the floor during that span. This number as at 35.5 at most books, but you can get a little extra juice towards the Under with BetMGM offering 34.5 as the over/under. Against defenses that rank in the top third of the NBA, Edwards has gone under on his combined points and rebounds total in 15 of his last 25 games.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Thursday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Thursday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 119-89-1 (+2102) over his last 209 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in on the spread for Game 2.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mackenzie Brooks, who is 16-3 (+1281) over her last 19 NBA player prop picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who Brooks is including in her NBA picks for Thursday.
