The second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs are off to a wild start, with underdogs winning every game heading into the Wednesday NBA schedule. The No. 2 seed Boston Celtics will try to level their series against the No. 3 seed New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference, while the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder will try to do the same against the No. 4 seed Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference. Nuggets star Nikola Jokic had 42 points, 22 rebounds and six assists in Game 1, and his over/under for points scored on Wednesday is 28.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Should you include Jokic in your NBA player prop bets on Wednesday?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Al Horford Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+165)
Boston is coming off a horrific 3-point shooting performance in Game 1, as the Celtics went 15 of 60 from 3-point range in an overtime loss. Horford contributed to that total with a 1 of 5 outing from the perimeter, but a similar volume will bode well for his Over on Wednesday. The veteran shot better than 36% from the outside during the regular season, and he is still shooting 35% during the postseason following Game 1 of the second round. SportsLine’s model is projecting 1.3 made triples for Horford, which provides plenty of value on the Over at +165.
“He averages +0.4 more (2.0) at home than on the road and has gone over 1.5 in 19 of 35 (54.3%) games,” Oh said. BetMGM has the best price at +165.
Chet Holmgren Over 15.5 points (-106)
Oklahoma City needs more from Holmgren on Wednesday after he scored 12 points in Game 1 and missed a pair of crucial free throws down the stretch. He averaged 15.2 points during the regular season and has upped that tally to 17.2 during the playoffs. Holmgren is a career 78% free-throw shooter and has gone 21 of 26 from the charity stripe in the postseason, so he should get to the line at least a couple times in this matchup. His minutes are also going to continue being higher than they were in the regular season, creating value on the Over.
“Chet was on a roll before the last 2 games with a 6-2 run with at least 19 in all of the overs,” Oh said. “I think Chet needs to not only play well, but also play major minutes and when he has 30+ minutes the over is 12-2.” Oh played this at Over 14.5, but every sportsbook has already moved this line to 15.5. With the model projecting a 16.1 points for Holmgren, Oh still sees value at Over 15.5. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the best price on the Over 15.5 (-106).
Jalen Williams Under 28.5 points + assists (-120)
Williams was held in check by Denver in Game 1, finishing with 16 points and four assists in 37 minutes. He shot just 5 of 20 from the floor and 2 of 9 from 3-point range. It continued a trend from beyond the arc, as he is knocking down just 26.7% of his attempts from the perimeter in the playoffs. He has not finished with more than 31 points + assists in the playoffs this season, and he has gone Under in four of his six games.
The model has Williams finishing with 20.4 points and 4.8 assists for a combined total of 25.2. DraftKings is offering the best price on the Under 28.5, while FanDuel has already moved this to 27.5.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for some of the most popular props on Wednesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Wednesday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 118-87-1 (+2222) over his last 206 NBA picks and he already has a pick locked in for Wednesday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Matt Severance, who is 156-86-1 (+3111) over his last 243 NBA picks. Visit SportsLine now to see who Severance is including in his NBA picks for Wednesday.
