I thought Taylor Fritz had a real shot to beat Casper Ruud in the Round of 16 at the Mutua Madrid Open. But the American wasn’t hitting spots with his serve, and TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations showed it was also an off day for him on the forehand wing. That won’t cut it against Ruud, who is a Top 5 player in the world on this surface.
Well, now we’ll hope that Ruud doesn’t burn us again. Only this time we’ll be backing him, as he should be able to beat Daniil Medvedev on the dirt.
Medvedev is unbeaten in three career meetings with Ruud, and he hasn’t even dropped a set against the Norwegian. But this will be their first career meeting on clay, where Medvedev is nothing more than an above-average player—and that may be generous. Meanwhile, Ruud is a two-time French Open runner-up, and most of his best results have come on the dirt. These two also haven’t played since 2021, which is pretty significant. Medvedev is much worse than he was four years ago, especially as a server. Meanwhile, Ruud continues to get better and better.
