The Cleveland Cavaliers will try to become the first team in the Eastern Conference to advance out of the opening round when they take on the Miami Heat as one of two games on Monday’s NBA schedule in the 2025 NBA playoffs. The Cavaliers (-8.5, 210.5) have proven why they had the best record in the Eastern Conference, winning the first three against Miami by an average of 22.3 points. It hasn’t been strictly the Donovan Mitchell show, as the Cavaliers have seven players averaging more than 10 points per game this series, so which Cleveland player should you include in Monday NBA player props on various betting apps? Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors (-3.5, 201.5) look to take a 3-1 series lead over the Houston Rockets. Jimmy Butler (pelvic) is questionable, and that’s an injury to monitor when making NBA prop bets.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 assists (-125)
The model projects Adebayo at 4.2 assists on Monday, which implies a 65% chance of recording at least four assists compared to the 55.5% implied odds, according to Oh. Adebayo averaged 4.3 assists per game this season, and even more at home with 4.6 assists per contest, compared to 4.0 on the road, and has gone Over this assist total in 27 of 40 games (66.7%). The Heat face a must-win scenario on Monday to avoid Erik Spoelstra being swept for just the third time as a head coach and Oh expects heavy minutes from Adebayo to send the series back to Cleveland. Oh also likes the Over on the game total as well, which plays to the likelihood of Adebayo having more assists.
“He has been hit or miss in this series with 3, 9 and 1 (assists), but he was 19-9 (68%) down the stretch,” Oh said. “The Over is a reflection of Miami players hitting threes, so hopefully they come out hot early, fueling both this play and the overall game Over play.” BetMGM is offering the best odds at -125 while the majority of other sportsbooks have this priced over -130.
Kel’el Ware Over 11.5 points + rebounds (-112)
Ware had eight points and five rebounds over 19 minutes in Game 3 to hit this Over after averaging 9.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game during the regular season. The Heat need the 7-foot size of Ware on the floor when competing with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley and a Cleveland team that ranked eighth in points in the paint. Ware, the No. 15 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, appeared to earn more trust from the coaching staff as the season progressed, averaging 10.7 points and 9.4 rebounds over March and April.
Ware had gone Over his points + rebounds total in each of his last five home games as the underdog, averaging 24.2 total points + rebounds per game over that span. He averaged 10.7 points and 7.7 rebounds at home compared to 8.1 points and 7.1 rebounds on the road this season. Although he’s not playing as many minutes this series, averaging 19.0 compared to 22.2 in the regular season, he’s still starting and playing an important enough role where he can reach 12 points + rebounds in a must-win game that Oh expects to be higher scoring than the sportsbooks project. FanDuel is offering the best odds at -112 while other sportsbooks have this listed at -120 or greater.
Stephen Curry Over 1.5 steals + blocks (-120)
Curry has multiple combined steals + blocks in back-to-back games this series, including having two blocks and a steal in Golden State in Game 3 as the Warriors remain in California for Game 4 against the Rockets. After taking Game 1 on the road, the Warriors have home-court advantage, but a loss on Monday gives Houston that advantage back. Curry played 41 minutes, the most of any regular season or playoff game this year, in Game 3, which showcases the importance for Golden State to win at home. And the more he’s on the court, the more chances he has to hit his Overs. Oh notes Curry has gone Over 1.5 steals + blocks in eight of 11 games when playing 37 minutes or greater.
“The Warriors need to do everything possible to get this series over as quickly as possible,” Oh said. “It was bad enough that they had to play in the play-in, but now they have Jimmy Butler hurting, too. With Minnesota potentially ending the series vs. the Lakers on Wednesday, the Warriors want to be able to end the series no later than Wednesday as well and get plenty of rest before they go against that younger, bigger, more athletic team.” Bet365 is offering this at -120 odds.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Monday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Monday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Mike Barner’s picks. He’s 190-143-2 (+2371) over his last 335 NBA picks and he already has multiple bets locked in for Monday.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Prop Bet Guy Doug, who is 59-47 (+504) over his last 106 NBA player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Prop Bet Guy is including in his NBA player prop picks for Monday.
