While Arnaldi has the game to thrive on clay, he’s just 4-7 on the surface over the last 52 weeks. He also hasn’t won a match on dirt this year. Of course, the Italian has only played two clay-court matches in 2025, so it almost feels unfair to say that. But one of those losses came against 38-year-old Richard Gasquet in Monte-Carlo. That’s the type of loss that really shouldn’t happen to a player of Arnaldi’s caliber. Coric isn’t exactly facing the Italian at the peak of his powers.
I also like the way Coric matches up with Arnaldi. The Croatian can be very tough to break when he’s serving well, and he has been dominant with the ball on his racquet at the Challenger level. Whether that’s serving up aces or setting himself up for easy plus-one winners, Coric has been dialed in, and he’s overwhelming opponents. With this being a clay-court event at high altitude, his serve should be a weapon. And Arnaldi’s serve really isn’t anything to write home about, so Coric should have the edge in that battle.
