The first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs begins on Saturday with a four-game slate, starting with the Pacers vs. Bucks at 1 p.m. ET. The Saturday NBA schedule continues with the Nuggets vs. Clippers at 3:30 p.m. ET in one of the most intriguing first-round NBA matchups. Los Angeles is on an eight-game winning streak and has won 18 of its last 21 games, powered by the return of Kawhi Leonard. He averaged 21.5 points in 37 games this season, and his over/under for points scored on Saturday is 25.5 in the NBA props from FanDuel Sportsbook. With so many stars in action on Saturday, there are plenty of NBA prop bets available at the top sportsbooks.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 39.5 points + assists (-110)
Antetokounmpo had a triple-double in the first meeting between these teams in November, and he went for 30 or more points in all three wins over Indiana in the regular season. He averaged a triple-double in his six April games, trailing only Nikola Jokic and Cade Cunningham for the league’s scoring lead. Teammate Damian Lillard will not play in the opener of this series, so Antetokounmpo will take on another heavy workload.
“The man has triple doubles in 3 of his last 4 games and out of 100 possessions he will likely be shooting, passing for an assist opportunity or going to the free throw line 45+ times,” SportsLine Data Analyst Stephen Oh said. “Our projection of 36 points and 7.6 assists is probably closer to his floor because while his recent assist production is weighted more in the model, it’s not weighted that much more to reflect his 12+ average the last 6 games.” FanDuel has the best odds at -110.
Norman Powell Over 2.5 3-pointers made (+125)
Leonard and James Harden will get most of the attention on Saturday, but Powell should not be overlooked. He averaged 27.8 points in four games against Denver this season, which was six more than his season average. Powell shot 41.8% from 3-point range on 428 attempts in the regular season, and he has gone Over this number in 17 of his last 27 road games.
“With a projection of 3 makes and an average of 3 makes we always have to take a +$$$ value on a line under both of these key numbers,” Oh said. “Powell has not been consistent since returning from an injury in mid March and did not reach this number for his first 5 games back and in 5 of his last 6 games, but I see this giving us a nice buy low spot.” Bet365 Sportsbook currently offers the best odds at +125.
Luka Doncic Over 1.5 steals (+100)
Doncic was acquired by Los Angeles specifically for the postseason, and he should turn up the defensive intensity on Saturday night. He led the Lakers with 1.61 steals per game in the regular season, finishing with four steals against the Mavericks earlier this month. Doncic is averaging more than two steals per game in his last 10 outings, and he should have an increased workload in the playoffs. He went Over 1.5 steals in three out of five games against Minnesota in a postseason series last year.
“We are projecting him for 1.62 steals and he averages 1.8, so we like even money on a line under his average and projection,” Oh said. “Like a lot of great, smart offensive players who aren’t great individual defenders they look to contribute by getting steals and with all the criticism he received by Nico Harrison he is showing he can contribute defensively with a career high steal average this season.” FanDuel is offering the best odds at +100.
Want more NBA picks for Saturday?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for some of the most popular props on Saturday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine, your one-stop shop for instant sports picks:
You can also view expert betting advice at SportsLine before making Saturday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks from an expert who is 93-67-1 (+1921) over his last 161 NBA picks.
SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Alex Selesnick, aka PropStarz, who is 125-86 (+1820) over his last 211 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who PropStarz is including in his NBA player prop picks for Saturday, which includes a play on one of the Clippers’ stars.
