The Wednesday NBA schedule features win-or-go-home contests in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament, where two teams’ seasons will come to an end. Bulls vs. Heat (+1.5) at 7:30 p.m. ET is followed by Mavericks vs. Kings (-4.5) at 10 p.m. ET. Stars like Tyler Herro, Anthony Davis and DeMar DeRozan will be focal points of their teams and of NBA player props. Davis recording a double-double is -285 for “Yes” and +195 for “No” at BetMGM Sportsbook in the latest NBA props. Davis, however, has more games without a double-double (five) than with (four) since joining Dallas, so is the plus-money prop bet one to jump on?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 points (+100)
Adebayo has upped his production since Jimmy Butler was traded away, going from 16.4 points per game with Butler on the team to 20.8 points since he left. Even though this play-in game isn’t technically a playoff contest, it is still the postseason nonetheless, and Adebayo has a tendency to be more aggressive in these types of games. He’s scored 20-plus points in each of his last 10 playoff games — and that was alongside Butler for many of them — so his trends indicate he should eclipse this bar on Wednesday.
“He comes in on a nice 5-1 over stretch (24.5 avg) with the 1 under being the 18 pt game vs Chicago last week,” Oh said of Adebayo. “He has averaged 20.5 pts (4-2 over) his last 6 vs the Bulls as he’s had a lot of success in matchups vs Nikola Vucevic (23, 23, 24, 23, and 27 pts before that 18 pt game).” Some betting apps have his NBA prop odds at -117, so there’s great value with it being plus-money at DraftKings.
Domantas Sabonis Over 6.5 assists (+105)
The model has a projection of 7.1 assists for Sabonis, who has averaged 7.9 assists over his last seven games versus Dallas. Six of those seven saw him go Over 6.5 dimes, including each of the last three. The Mavericks have allowed the 11th-most assists this season, but when you look at how they’ve done against centers, specifically, you can see why the model backs the Over. Just six NBA teams allowed more assists per game to opposing centers than Dallas. That includes allowing eight assists in its last game in which it played its starters — and that was to Toronto’s Jonathan Mogbo, who came in averaging just 2.1 assists. With Sabonis averaging 6.0 assists the season, the value is clearly on the Over at DraftKings.
Miami Heat to beat the Chicago Bulls (+100)
These teams are playing nearly one year to the day of their play-in tournament matchup a year ago. Like tonight, that one was a win-or-go-home situation, and Miami dominated to the tune of a 21-point victory. Both teams enter this matchup on an upswing, with Chicago 6-3 over its last nine games, but Miami is 8-3 over its last 11, before sitting its starters in the regular season finale. While Wednesday’s matchup will take place in Chicago, that doesn’t necessarily give the home team the advantage as the Bulls went just 18-23 at home. That’s the worst home mark amongst the 20 teams to qualify for the playoffs or play-in, as just six teams in the entire NBA had a worst home record than the Bulls.
“The model is making the road team a nearly -4 favorite with a 60% chance of winning,” said Oh, with the best odds for Miami to outright win coming at Caesars.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Wednesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
You can also view expert betting advice before making Wednesday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks from an expert who is 90-64-1 (+1945) over his last 155 NBA picks.
SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props, including Mike Barner, who is 137-89 (+3254) over his last 226 player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, which includes a play on one of the league’s top rookies.
