Davidovich Fokina is still under-ranked for a player of his physical gifts. In April 2023, he was No. 35; now he’s No. 42. ADF may not have the sky-high ceiling that Alcaraz does, but he’s an exciting athlete in his own right, bouncing all over the court and sending topspin forehands diving into the corners. He made the Monte Carlo final in 2022, and now he’s one match from getting back there.
One very challenging match, that is. Davidovich Fokina has worked himself into form this week; he beat two lefties, Ben Shelton and Jack Draper, in three sets, and made quick work of Alexei Popyrin in the quarters. But Alcaraz has done the same, at a higher level. After dropping the first set of his opener, he found his clay legs quickly. Most impressive was the way he weathered an early storm from Fils on Friday, and then, down 1-3 in the third, raised his level to win the final five games.
It’s possible that Alcaraz will have a letdown, physical and/or mental, after that stressful victory, now that he’s facing a countryman. But his level through the week, and his desire to win his first title in Monte Carlo, make me think this match will resemble their match from two years ago. Which means an Alcaraz win in two close sets. Winner: Alcaraz
