The NBA playoffs are around the corner, but, in the Western Conference, no one has any idea what the matchups are going to look like. We more or less know who the top three seeds will be — the 66-14 Oklahoma City Thunder are way out ahead of everybody, the 52-28 Houston Rockets have locked down the No. 2 spot and the Los Angeles Lakers can clinch No. 3 with one more win — but the standings are a complete mess after that.
With just a few days left in the regular season, five Western Conference teams have 32 or 33 losses. What follows is an attempt to make the playoff picture a little less fuzzy: A breakdown of the various probabilities (per PlayoffStatus.com) for teams currently seeded No. 3 to No. 8, followed by each team’s remaining schedule and tiebreaker status.
As a reminder, the top six seeds automatically get a playoff berth. Seeds 7-10 have to earn their playoff spot in next week’s Play-In Tournament.
Western Conference playoff chances
How tiebreakers work
In the event of a two-way tie, the team that won the season series gets the higher seed. If they split the season series and one of the teams won its division, the division winner gets the higher seed. If that doesn’t resolve the tie, then the tiebreakers are, in order: division record (if the teams are in the same division), conference record, record against top-10 in-conference teams, record against top-10 teams in both conferences, point differential.
In the event that more than two teams are tied, the tiebreakers are, in order: division winner, record against tied teams, division record (if all tied teams are in the same division), conference record, record against top-10 in-conference teams, record against top-10 teams in both conferences, point differential.
Each team’s outlook
Los Angeles Lakers (49-31)
- Remaining games: vs. Rockets (April 11), at Trail Blazers (April 13)
- Division winner: Can win (and can clinch with one win or one Clippers loss)
- Head-to-head won: Nuggets (2-2), Clippers (3-1), Warriors (3-1), Timberwolves (2-2), Grizzlies (3-1)
- Head-to-head lost: None
- Division record: 12-4, no games remaining
- Conference record: 35-15, three games remaining
- Note: The Lakers can clinch the No. 3 seed with one more win.
Denver Nuggets (48-32)
- Remaining games: vs. Grizzlies (April 11), at Rockets (April 13)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Warriors (2-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (2-2), Timberwolves (0-4)
- Head-to-head undecided: Clippers (2-2), Grizzlies (1-1, one game remaining)
- Division record: 8-8, no games remaining
- Conference record: 30-20, two games remaining
- Note: The Nuggets can clinch the No. 4 seed by winning their two remaining games.
Los Angeles Clippers (48-32)
- Remaining games: at Kings (April 11), at Warriors (April 13)
- Division winner: Can win (but are one game behind the Lakers)
- Head-to-head won: Warriors (3-0, one game remaining), Grizzlies (3-0)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (1-3), Timberwolves (0-3)
- Head-to-head split/undecided: Nuggets (2-2)
- Division record: 7-7, two games remaining
- Conference record: 27-23, two games remaining
- Note: The Clippers can clinch a top-five seed by winning their two remaining games.
Memphis Grizzlies (47-32)
- Remaining games: vs. Timberwolves (April 10), at Nuggets (April 11), vs. Mavericks (April 13)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Timberwolves (2-0, one game remaining)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (1-3), Clippers (0-3), Warriors (1-3)
- Head-to-head split/undecided: Nuggets (1-1, one game remaining)
- Division record: 10-5, one game remaining
- Conference record: 26-22, three games remaining
- Note: The Grizzlies can clinch a top-five seed by winning their three remaining games.
Golden State Warriors (47-33)
- Remaining games: at Trail Blazers (April 11), vs. Clippers (April 13)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Timberwolves (3-1), Grizzlies (3-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (1-3), Nuggets (1-2), Clippers (0-3, one game remaining)
- Division record: 5-10, one games remaining
- Conference record: 28-22, two games remaining
- Note: The Warriors do not control their own destiny — if they win their two remaining games, they could still be in the play-in.
Minnesota Timberwolves (46-33)
- Remaining games: at Grizzlies (April 10), vs. Nets (April 11), vs. Jazz (April 13)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Nuggets (4-0), Clippers (3-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (2-2), Warriors (1-3), Grizzlies (0-2, one game remaining)
- Division record: 10-5, one game remaining
- Conference record: 31-19, two games remaining
- Note: The Timberwolves can clinch the No. 6 seed (and avoid the play-in) by winning their three remaining games.
Got all that? No? Well, just know that Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves on Thursday, Nuggets vs. Grizzlies on Friday and Clippers vs. Warriors on Sunday could all have a playoff feel to them.
