On Thursday, April 10th, Andrey Rublev, who won the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters in 2023, will take on Arthur Fils for a spot in the quarterfinals. Rublev is coming off an impressive straight-set win over Gael Monfils on Wednesday, and Fils beat up on Flavio Cobolli after fighting hard in a three-set victory against Tallon Griekspoor on Tuesday. Now, we’re going to see if Fils has what it takes to beat Rublev. The Russian won 6-4, 1-6, 6-2 when they met in Hong Kong last January, and that was the first meeting between the two. But Rublev’s game has tailed off a bit, and Fils is improving rapidly. That said, I like the Frenchman’s chances.
Rublev was able to win a title in Doha in February, but the 27-year-old is just 10-7 on the season. His winning percentage is just 58.8% early in the year, and it was down at 60.6% in 2024. That’s a pretty steep drop-off when looking at his 69.1% winning percentage in 2023 — and the three years of winning at least 70.5% before that. Rublev is no longer the returner he was when he was at his very best, which is problematic considering he’s not as good of a server as some of the tour’s other top players. Rublev also seems a little less dominant from the baseline, where he used to be able to overwhelm opponents with explosive power from both wings.
Fils has been the opposite. His 66.7% winning percentage in 2025 is a career high, and he’s returning better than ever. His 22.4% break percentage is up from 20.3% last year. Fils is also a little sharper as a server, making a career-high 62.6% of his first serves. He also looks more confident with his groundstrokes, and he’s setting up points a lot better — which comes with maturing and playing more and more big matches.
The scary thing for Rublev is that Fils actually had some stronger clay-court numbers than him last year. TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations had Fils with a higher forehand quality (7.81 vs. 7.62) and backhand quality (7.28 vs. 6.87) on clay when not factoring in the 2024 French Open. That’s going to be interesting to watch here, as Fils has more pop on his serve than Rublev does. Well, if the Frenchman is holding serve easier and holding his own in baseline exchanges, he should find a way to win this match.
There’s also some sharp money coming in on Fils, and it’s never a bad idea to side with the best bettors in the world. While a majority of the tickets have come in on Rublev, the Russian has gone from a favorite to an underdog.
Pick: Fils ML (-105)
