The NBA playoffs are around the corner, but, in the Western Conference, no one has any idea what the matchups are going to look like. The 64-14 and top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder are way out ahead of everybody, the Houston Rockets have the inside track on the No. 2 spot. After that, the playoff picture is a complete mess.
With less than a week left in the regular season, five Western Conference teams have exactly 32 losses. What follows is an attempt to make the playoff picture a little less fuzzy: A breakdown of the various probabilities (per PlayoffStatus.com) for teams currently seeded No. 3 to No. 8, followed by each team’s remaining schedule and tiebreaker status.
As a reminder, the top six seeds automatically get a playoff berth. Seeds 7-10 have to earn their playoff spot in next week’s Play-In Tournament.
Western Conference playoff chances
How NBA tiebreakers work
In the event of a two-way tie, the team that won the season series gets the higher seed. If they split the season series and one of the teams won its division, the division winner gets the higher seed. If that doesn’t resolve the tie, then the tiebreakers are, in order: division record (if the teams are in the same division), conference record, record against top-10 in-conference teams, record against top-10 teams in both conferences, point differential.
In the event that more than two teams are tied, the tiebreakers are, in order: division winner, record against tied teams, division record (if all tied teams are in the same division), conference record, record against top-10 in-conference teams, record against top-10 teams in both conferences, point differential.
Each team’s final-week outlook
Los Angeles Lakers (48-30)
- Remaining games: at Thunder (April 8), at Mavericks (April 9), vs. Rockets (April 11), at Trail Blazers (April 13)
- Division winner: Can win (and can clinch with three more regular-season wins)
- Head-to-head won: Nuggets (2-2), Clippers (3-1), Warriors (3-1), Timberwolves (2-2), Grizzlies (3-1)
- Head-to-head lost: None
- Division record: 12-4, no games remaining
- Conference record: 34-14, four games remaining
- Note: The Lakers can clinch the No. 3 seed with two more wins.
Denver Nuggets (47-32)
- Remaining games: at Kings (April 9), vs. Grizzlies (April 11), at Rockets (April 13)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Warriors (2-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (2-2), Timberwolves (0-4)
- Head-to-head undecided: Clippers (2-2), Grizzlies (1-1, one game remaining)
- Division record: 8-8, no games remaining
- Conference record: 29-20, three games remaining
- Note: The Nuggets can clinch a top-six seed by winning their three remaining games.
Los Angeles Clippers (46-32)
- Remaining games: vs. Spurs (April 8), vs. Rockets (April 9), at Kings (April 11), at Warriors (April 13)
- Division winner: Can win (but are two games behind the Lakers)
- Head-to-head won: Warriors (3-0, one game remaining), Grizzlies (3-0)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (1-3), Timberwolves (0-3)
- Head-to-head split/undecided: Nuggets (2-2)
- Division record: 7-7, two games remaining
- Conference record: 25-23, four games remaining
- Note: The Clippers can clinch a top-five seed by winning their four remaining games.
Golden State Warriors (46-32)
- Remaining games: at Suns (April 8), vs. Spurs (April 9), at Trail Blazers (April 11), vs. Clippers (April 13)
- Division winner: Can win (but are two games behind the Lakers)
- Head-to-head won: Timberwolves (3-1), Grizzlies (3-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (1-3), Nuggets (1-2), Clippers (0-3, one game remaining)
- Division record: 4-10, two games remaining
- Conference record: 27-21, four games remaining
- Note: The Warriors can clinch a top-five seed by winning their four remaining games.
Minnesota Timberwolves (46-32)
- Remaining games: at Bucks (April 8), at Grizzlies (April 10), vs. Nets (April 11), vs. Jazz (April 13)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Nuggets (4-0), Clippers (3-1)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (2-2), Warriors (1-3), Grizzlies (0-2, one game remaining)
- Division record: 10-5, one game remaining
- Conference record: 31-19, two games remaining
- Note: The Timberwolves can clinch a top-five seed by winning their four remaining games.
Memphis Grizzlies (46-32)
- Remaining games: at Hornets (April 8), vs. Timberwolves (April 10), at Nuggets (April 11), vs. Mavericks (April 13)
- Division winner: Can’t win
- Head-to-head won: Timberwolves (2-0, one game remaining)
- Head-to-head lost: Lakers (1-3), Clippers (0-3), Warriors (1-3)
- Head-to-head split/undecided: Nuggets (1-1, one game remaining)
- Division record: 10-5, one game remaining
- Conference record: 26-22, three games remaining
- Note: The Grizzlies can clinch a top-five seed by winning their four remaining games.
Got it? Good. The bracket will be set by Sunday night.
