Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat and Sacramento Kings vs. Detroit Pistons are the only two games on Monday’s NBA schedule and they both have seeding implications for the NBA playoff picture. The Heat and Kings will be in the NBA Play-In Tournament, but the Heat could move out of the first elimination game with a strong close to the regular season and climb to the No. 7 or No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Kings hope to retain homecourt in that first elimination game in the Western Conference as the No. 9 seed. Heat center Bam Adebayo has scored at least 21 points in four straight games and his over/under for total points is 20.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook, compared to 21.5 on the majority of other betting apps, so is that a bet to include in Monday NBA player props?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Bam Adebayo Over 13.5 rebounds + assists (-136)
Adebayo has gone Over this total in three of his last six games, including having 12 rebounds and five assists against the Bucks on Saturday. He’s had no fewer than 11 rebounds + assists in each of those six games, so he’s either been over or right at this mark over the last two weeks. “I like the matchup vs the undersized and undermanned 76ers,” Oh said. “This should be one of Bam’s double-digit rebound games. His Over 13.5 is a strong 22-17 at home this season and a very strong 9-3 when the Heat are favored by at least -8, even though he averages four fewer minutes per game.”
The model projects 11 rebounds and five assists for Adebayo on Monday, which are both Over those individual lines, but the model finds the best value comes from combining the two. FanDuel is still offering this total at 13.5, while other sportsbooks have moved it to 14.5, and Oh loves the chance to get 13.5 while you can.
Ausar Thompson Over 2.5 steals + blocks (+115)
The No. 5 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft has gone Over this number in two of his last three games. The model projects him at 2.6 steals + blocks, and he’s averaging 2.5 steals + blocks at home this season, so the chance to get this at plus-money is a strong value to Oh. Thompson has played at least 30 minutes in four straight games for the Pistons and the model expects that to continue.
“Tobias Harris and Jalen Duren are both on the injury list,” Oh said. “With Duren and Harris in our projection, Thompson is projected for 28 minutes, but that could easily go up to 30+. He has 3+ steals + blocks in 14 of 21 games when he plays 25+ minutes and 25 minutes should be a floor tonight. Bet365 is currently offering this at +115 odds.
Lonnie Walker IV Under 16.5 points + rebounds (-106)
Walker has finished Under his points + rebounds number in three of his last five games, averaging 13.2 over that span. He had 18 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday, but the game before against the Bucks, he shot just 2 of 7 for four points over 17 minutes with four rebounds to finish well Under his total. Walker’s usage and performance has had no consistency from one night to the other and the model doesn’t have high expectations for him on Monday.
The 76ers play the Heat, who rank seventh in the league in scoring defense at 109.9 ppg this season. Walker had 10 points and one rebound over 21 minutes against the Heat on March 29. The model projects him at 9.4 on Monday in another rough performance against Miami. Caesars Sportsbook is currently offering the best odds at -106.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Monday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
