Before that match in Flushing Meadows, Kenin had taken at least one set in four straight tour-level meetings with Pegula. That said, there’s a pretty real history of Kenin pushing Pegula, and I don’t see any reason she can’t do it in Charleston. Kenin might be somewhat nervous playing just her third final since 2020. But she’ll also enter this match with very little expectations, meaning she’ll be able to swing freely. She also didn’t have to play very much in the semifinals, as Amanda Anisimova retired trailing 5-2 in the opening set. So, Kenin should be pretty well-rested against Pegula, who went deep in Miami and has now played back-to-back three-setters in Charleston.
These conditions are also quite favorable for Kenin. They’re a little quicker than your average clay courts, so Kenin’s ability to blast the ball is still there. But the clay still gives her a little more time to set her feet, and she needs it. Kenin’s biggest weakness is sloppy footwork, but having a bit of a higher bounce will give her time to set her feet and rip the ball.
If Kenin just has a decent day as a server, this should be a very competitive match — and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of her winning. But taking the set play is a bit safer, as it protects against the better player finding a way to adjust and figure out how to win on the big stage.
Pick: Kenin +1.5 Sets (-150)
