If we do see both players show up in this match, I’m not sure I see this being one-sided either way. Pegula did earn a 6-2, 6-4 win over Alexandrova in their only clay-court meeting, but that was in Rome back in 2021. We have seen two matches pretty recently in which Alexandrova has come out on top in three-setters. At last year’s Miami Open, Alexandrova earned a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 win in a fun two-hour match. Then, in Doha this year, Alexandrova came away with a 4-6, 6-1, 6-1 win over the American.
It’s just clear that Pegula has some things that she knows she can go to in order to make Alexandrova sweat, as she has won at least a set in all three of her meetings with the Russian. But Alexandrova has also shown that she can adjust to what Pegula throws at her. She hasn’t lost to her since their first showdown, and she came back from a one-set deficit in each of the last two wins.
With all of that in mind, it’s hard to see this going any other way. And the beauty in taking the Over on 20.5 games is that even a 7-5, 6-3 straight-set win would go Over the number. So would a 7-6, 6-2 win. So, if this is just extremely tight for one set, we should see an Over. And while it’s Alexandrova that is probably the more likely of the two to get blown out, she’s a big server that tends to play longer matches. She has actually gone Over a total of 20.5 in 59% of the matches she has played over the last 52 weeks.
Pick: Over 20.5 Games (-154)
