The Tuesday NBA schedule features a seven-game slate, including a Western Conference semifinals rematch that could be a playoff preview. The Denver Nuggets will host the Minnesota Timberwolves (+3.5, 230.5) and despite having the lesser record, the Timberwolves are going for the season-sweep against Denver for the first time since the 2002-03 season. Minnesota guard Anthony Edwards has been a key reason for the head-to-head dominance, as he has scored at least 29 points in all three games, yet, you can find his over/under for total points at 27.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook in NBA player props. The odds are -110, but the majority of other betting sites list his over/under at 27.5 points with juiced odds. Given he has scored at least 29 points in each of the previous three matchups, in this one of the NBA prop bets you should target on Tuesday?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value going into the season. The odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Josh Giddey Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+100)
Giddey is averaging 1.7 made 3-pointers at home this season for the Bulls, who will host the Raptors on Tuesday. Although it’s the second half of a back-to-back, Giddey only played 28 minutes in a 28-point loss to the Thunder on Monday, so he shouldn’t be overly fatigued. It’s also a significantly easier matchup as Chicago goes from playing an elite defense in Oklahoma City (No. 2 in points per game against this season) to the 17th-ranked Raptors, allowing 115 ppg this season.
“We are getting a nice plus-money price because he is just 1 for 8 his last two games, but before this, he was shooting 51.9% from 3-point range with a 2.3 made average over six games,” Oh told SportsLine. This bet is minus-odds at most sportsbooks, but Fanatics is offering it at even money and the model projects Giddey at 1.8 made 3-pointers.
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 rebounds blocks (-115)
The model projects the Knicks to outrebound the 76ers by more than 15 on Tuesday and expects Bridges to play a key role in that, projecting him at 4.4 rebounds. Oh points out that Bridges actually averages more minutes in games where the Knicks are favored by 8-points or greater, as is the case on Tuesday with the Knicks at 14.5-point favorites. Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau is known for playing his starters extensive minutes, even in one-sided affairs, and with the 76ers shooting below 43% in three of their last four games, there should be plenty of opportunities for Briges to corral four boards. Fanatics has the best odds at -115, while other betting apps have his number at -120 or greater.
“I’m willing to risk that this game will be either closer than expected resulting in greater than 30 minutes and Bridges for four rebounds, or it’s a Knicks big win thanks to early domination on the boards and Bridges gets his number even in far fewer minutes,” Oh said. “While his season over 3.5 is just 14-23 at home, he comes in 9-6 with Jalen Brunson out.”
Desmond Bane Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+135)
Bane has gone Under this total in five of his last six games, but before that stretch, he went over this number in three of four games, including shooting 7 of 7 on 3-pointers against the Kings on March 17. Bane is averaging 2.3 made 3-pointers, so Oh likes the chance to get him at plus money in a matchup against Steph Curry and the Warriors. Bane averaged 3.3 made 3-pointers per game last season and Oh notes that Bane has been more aggressive from deep lately with 22 3-point attempts over his last three games.
“While Ja Morant may dominate the ball even more he should draw more attention from the defense and hopefully leave Bane open,” Oh said. “It’s also tempting for high-volume 3-point shooters to show what they got when they go against Steph Curry.” DraftKings Sportsbook offering this at +135 odds is a sizeable advantage over the majority of sportsbooks paying in the +110 range.
Dyson Daniels Over 3.5 steals + blocks (+120)
Daniels has been a defensive menace over the past few weeks with multiple steals in 11 straight games. He has at least four steals in six of those contests, covering this number without blocks in more than half of those games, including with five steals on Sunday against the Bucks. The model projects the Hawks guard over three steals and projects value in taking this at plus-money odds at Bet365, especially at home against the Trail Blazers. Oh notes Daniels’ Over 3.5 is 21-13 at home this season.
“His home average is even more obscenely high with 4.2 (steals + blocks) per game,” Oh said. “One team he has not had a massive steals + blocks game against is Portland (three and two in two games), so I don’t see him going 0 for 3.”
Nick Richards Over 0.5 assists (+120)
Richards is recording an assist in 70% of simulations and the line implies just 45.5%, Oh notes. The 7-foot Suns center is averaging nearly one assist per game (0.9) this season. He’s gone three straight games without an assist, but he also played fewer than 20 minutes in two of those contests. With Kevin Durant (ankle) out, Richards could play more, especially against a physical team like the Bucks. Bet365 is offering this at +120 odds.
“I think without Durant, the team will need Richards on the floor to stay remotely competitive on the boards, get 10+ points vs. the big frontcourt of Milwaukee,” Oh said. … “We are projecting him for 25 minutes and when he plays 24+ with Phoenix, the Over is 9-4 vs. just 5-14 when he plays under 25 minutes as a Sun.”
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Tuesday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
