Whenever you begin a sentence with “if Kawhi Leonard can stay healthy,” you’re playing a dangerous game. But … if Kawhi Leonard can stay healthy, the Los Angeles Clippers are going be a serious problem in the playoffs.
In fact, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to peg the Clippers, who beat the Magic 96-87 on Monday for their 11th win in their last 14 games, as perhaps the second-best team in the Western Conference.
That sounds like a stretch for a team that, if the postseason were to start today, would have to play its way into a first-round series from the No. 8 seed. But with seven games to play, the Clippers (43-32) are just one back in the loss column from the No. 5 Grizzlies and No. 6 Warriors, and they own the tiebreaker over both.
Which is to say, the Clippers might very well end up with a top-five seed, at which point it would typically sound more reasonable to classify them as a conference title contender. But no matter what seed they end up with, as long as they get to a first-round series, this is not a team that anyone is going to want to play with the way that Leonard has played for a while now.
Before a rough shooting game on Monday, Leonard came in to Orlando averaging better than 25 points per game on some truly outrageous shooting splits over his previous eight games.
|
ZONE |
SHOOTING % |
|
RESTRICTED AREA |
74.2 |
|
PAINT |
52.4 |
|
MIDRANGE |
57.7 |
|
3-POINT |
56.1 |
Leonard missed the Clippers’ first 34 games with what the Clippers said was right knee injury recovery. And when he first came back in early January, he didn’t look anything close to the way he has looked over the last month. He’s playing with low leverage and last-step separation again. He’s getting to his scoring spots with short bursts that weren’t there before. He’s rebounding. Facilitating. Defending.
You don’t want to jinx this by even acknowledging Leonard as potentially back to star form, because it feels like as soon as we do that something’s going to happen. It almost always does. But again, if Leonard can stay healthy, the Clippers quietly fit the mold of at least a sleeper contender.
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This is a team that has been playing top-end defense all season, but a near bottom-10 offense wasn’t going to cut it. Leonard changes that equation. When he’s been on the floor, the Clippers have outscored opponents by nine points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, with what would register as the league’s No. 6 offense.
Since March 1, the Clippers rank fourth offensively. Two of their three losses over the last three weeks have come against the Thunder and Cavaliers — the NBA’s two best teams — by a combined seven points. Leonard didn’t even play against Cleveland and they still nearly beat the team that has been the class of the East all season.
It also feels dangerous to trust James Harden at the head of a contender. The 76ers found that out when he laid eggs in Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 Eastern Conference semifinals when they had a 3-2 lead on Boston. But Harden has been very good this season. He’s still an elite creator as a passer. He came into Orlando averaging over 25 points on 38% 3-point shooting over his previous 15 games.
And look around the two stars. Norman Powell, who had 34 on Monday, has been one of league’s most lethal shooters this year, both on pull-ups and catch-and-shoots. Ivica Zubac, who pulled down 20 rebounds for the fourth time this season vs. Orlando, is one of the best players in the league that you hear almost nothing about.
Since the All-Star break, Zubac is averaging nearly 20 points and the Clippers are dominating his minutes. League-wide, Zubac ranks second in defense win shares, fourth in total win shares, fifth in rebounding percentage and second in field-goal percentage among all players taking at least 10 shots per game. Only seven players have blocked more shots since the All-Star break.
The Clippers can play big with Zubac or small with Nic Batum at center, and they can really defend — starting with Kris Dunn, one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, as evidenced by his No. 1 ranking in defensive box plus-minus, and continuing with Derrick Jones Jr. and Zubac.
You might snicker at all these fancy stat citings, but watch the Clippers play and you’ll see why these numbers are what they are. This is a really good, deep two-way team (Amir Coffey is a legit player and he might not even be in the playoff rotation) with an elite coach in Tyronn Lue and a proven superstar in Leonard who, in a tightly packed Western Conference below OKC, can be a true separator in a close series if he can stay healthy.
It’s a big if, obviously. But as long as Leonard’s luck continues to hold up, it’s probably time to start talking about the Clippers as not just a sleeper, but as an actual out-in-the-open contender.
