Preview and Pick
March has been a tough month for people who make tennis predictions.
In recent years, the Sunshine Double has been a time of year when the cream tends to rise: Carlos Alcaraz, Iga Swiatek, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev have all won in Indian Wells and Miami this decade. In 2025, though, the two tournaments have been sites of upheaval. Jack Draper, Mirra Andreeva and Alexandra Eala, to name just three, have sprung surprises, while Alcaraz and Swiatek—as well as the suspended Sinner—have failed to defend titles.
But a Sabalenka-Pegula final in Miami must have been predictable, because this was the rare March result that I got right, even before the tournament began. Coming in, it seemed to me that Sabalenka, after losing two finals she probably should have won, in Melbourne and Indian Wells, would be determined to finish the job in Miami. As for Pegula, her title run in Austin a month ago made me feel like a bigger result was coming soon for her, and she has generally played well in Miami in the past.
So rather than a new face in this final, we have two familiar ones, two Top 5 players, and a rematch of last year’s title matches at the Cincinnati Open and US Open.
