Djokovic is 12-1 in 13 ATP-level meetings with Dimitrov, and three of the last four victories have been in straight sets. Djokovic is the type of player that can really make you pay for having a one-handed backhand, which is why he has owned Musetti and Dimitrov—who have really good ones. Also, while Dimitrov is one of the best servers on tour, Djokovic is arguably the greatest returner in the history of the sport. He’s going to have Dimitrov under constant fire with the ball on his racquet. Eventually, the Bulgarian should crack.
Djokovic is also capable of going into lockdown mode and really making opponents grind out points. That’s something we often see from the 24-time Grand Slam champion when he’s down a break and badly needs one back, or when he gets into tiebreakers. But don’t be surprised if the game plan Andy Murray puts together for Djokovic is to extend points and really test Dimitrov’s legs early on. While Dimitrov should show up hydrated for this match, it’s going to be hot and humid in South Beach on Friday. There’s a chance he goes through the same old song and dance again. And even if he doesn’t, over the last few years, Dimitrov has been guilty of breaking down physically late in tournaments. That’s not what you want against one of the fittest athletes of all time.
It’s hard to envision a scenario in which a banged-up Dimitrov will go out there and put a scare into Djokovic. If the Bulgarian was 100% heading into this one, perhaps it’d be a different story. After all, I’m not fully convinced we’re seeing the best of Djokovic right now, and we might not see it until we’re a couple of weeks into the clay season. But I’ll take Djokovic at 85% over Dimitrov at whatever he is currently.
Pick: Djokovic -1.5 Sets (-127)
