Raducanu is serving better than she has all season, taking advantage of Miami’s low bounces and faster courts. She’s also playing her usual brand of aggressive first-strike tennis—while overwhelming opponents by not racking up unforced errors. Raducanu is simply looking confident right now, and confidence is what she has been missing (along with good health).
If we see the same version of Raducanu that we have seen over the last few weeks, it’s hard to see a pathway for Pegula to win in straights. While Pegula is super strong from the baseline, her serve isn’t often consistent enough for her to just breeze through matches against talented opponents. Raducanu, unlike Marta Kostyuk, Pegula’s last opponent, should be more reliable with the ball on her racquet. She should also do a good job of pushing Pegula around with her heavy groundstrokes.
Ultimately, it wouldn’t surprise me if Pegula pulls this out. Raducanu hasn’t played a match this big in ages, and Pegula loves 1000-level events. But I still don’t see Pegula winning in two. Raducanu has also played well against Pegula in the past. In 2022, the American earned a tight 7-5, 6-4 win in Cincinnati. Then, last year, Raducanu came away with a 4-6, 7-6 (6), 7-5 win over Pegula in Eastbourne. That Raducanu win came right before Pegula started to play some insane tennis towards the end of the summer. Raducanu was also nowhere near as good in 2024 as she looks right now.
PIck: Raducanu +1.5 Sets (-154)
