Swiatek has proven to be human when playing in fast conditions. We have seen that at the Australian Open, and we have also seen that at Wimbledon. Swiatek is simply at her best when she’s able to lock things down, rely on her unbelievable baseline defense and force you to take low-percentage shots to try and blast the ball by her. And she does all of that while hitting heavy topspin forehands all over the court, as well as big, flat backhands. She’s also relentless as a returner, so there’s never really time to relax against her on a slower court. But all of that changes when Swiatek is capable of being rushed, which is why we have seen her struggle with average competition over the last few matches.
Considering the form both of these players carry into this match, I don’t see anything that suggests this will be a straightforward beatdown either way. But that’s exactly what an Under on 19.5 would mean. That said, I’m firing up the Over and will root for Svitolina to keep up her great all-around play. Swiatek is still the more likely player to win, which isn’t a bold statement considering the best moneyline price you’ll find on her is -425. So, it’s Svitolina that will likely be the one that needs to perform at a higher level for this to hit. But realistically, if one of the first two sets ends 7-5, or in a tiebreaker, we’ll be in great shape.
Pick: Over 19.5 Games (-125)
