Two Western Conference teams battling for the No. 2 seed in the conference to secure a longer stretch of homecourt advantage during the 2025 NBA playoffs go head-to-head on Sunday when the Houston Rockets host the Denver Nuggets. The Rockets are 46-25 overall, including 26-10 at home, and hold the No. 2 seed in the West. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 44-27 overall, including 21-16 on the road, and are two games behind Houston at the No. 3 seed in the conference. Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic (ankle) is out.
Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center in Houston. The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites according to the latest Rockets vs. Nuggets odds from the SportsLine Consensus. Houston is -298 on the money line (bet $298 to win $100), while the Nuggets are +239 (bet $100 to win $239). The over/under is 227.5.
If you’re looking to build a same-game parlay for Sunday’s matchup between the Nuggets and Rockets, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. SportsLine’s proven model, which has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons, has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and revealed a projected over/under for each player in each matchup. Below are the model’s three best NBA picks for Sunday to include in a same-game parlay.
Rockets -7 (-110 at FanDuel)
Few players in the league are as integral in their team’s offense as Jokic for the Nuggets. Jokic averages a triple-double and leads the team in points, rebounds and assists as Jokic is third in the NBA in points (29.1 points per game) and second in assists (10.3 per game). Sunday will be Denver’s fourth straight game without Jokic and the Nuggets are 1-2 without him, including losing the last two by at least 12 points. The Nuggets are 3-6 without Jokic this season with five of six losses coming by at least 12 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets enter on a nine-game winning streak, which is the longest active winning streak in the league. The SportsLine model projects the Rockets to cover in well over 60% of simulations. The SportsLine Consensus and several sportsbooks have moved the Rockets to 7.5-point favorites, but FanDuel Sportsbook still has Houston at -7 at -110 odds.
Fred VanVleet Over 3.5 total rebounds (+122 at FanDuel)
VanVleet has gone over his total rebounding prop in four of the last five games and has recorded at least four rebounds all four times. He’s averaging 4.8 total rebounds over his last five games and without Jokic securing his 12.8 rebounds per game, there will be more opportunities for players on both sides to corral boards. The 31-year-old is averaging 4.0 rebounds per game this season, but the Rockets surrendered six rebounds to Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe and five to Lakers guard Austin Reaves over their last two games as two guards with similar rebounding averages to VanVleet this season.
Tari Eason Under 17.5 points + rebounds (-110 at FanDuel)
The 23-year-old Rockets forward finished Under this number with eight points and seven assists in a 102-98 win over the Heat on Friday and he hasn’t often excelled against elite competition this season. He’s finished below his points + rebounds number in seven of his last 10 games against teams with a winning record, averaging 16.4 total points + rebounds per game over those contests. The Rockets should be at full strength with center Alperen Sengun and forward Amen Thompson off the injury report, which means fewer touches for Eason.
Same-Game Parlay odds: +606
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